By Emil Souleimanov (12/10/2014 issue of the CACI Analyst)
On December 4, a group of Chechen insurgents in three vehicles, despite being detected in the outskirts of Chechnya’s capital city, carried out an unprecedented attack on Grozny. After hours of fighting, insurgents, isolated in the republic’s Press House building and a nearby school, situated in the city center, killed 14 and wounded three dozen local policemen. In turn, 11 insurgents were killed. The December 4 attack raised questions about the strength of the Chechen insurgency and the capability of local authorities to stem it. With a three years’ break, the insurgency has been ongoing for two decades.
By Jacob Zenn (12/10/2014 issue of the CACI Analyst)
The Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP) is a Pakistan-based militant group operating with the Pakistani Taliban and Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU). Led by Uighurs from China’s Xinjiang Province (which the TIP calls “East Turkistan”), the TIP seeks the “liberation” of Xinjiang and its incorporation into a Central Asian Caliphate called “Turkistan.” In 2014, the TIP has sought to emphasize its role in Syria in its propaganda. This suggests that, like the IMU and some Pakistani Taliban factions, the TIP receives inspiration and seeks funding from the Islamic State (also known as ISIS). This is but one of many examples of ISIS’s increasing traction among Central Asian militants.
By Huseyn Aliyev (12/10/2014 issue of the CACI Analyst)
On November 12, an Armenian combat helicopter was shot down by Azerbaijani defense forces after an attempted attack on Azerbaijani positions over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh. The incident took place just two weeks after the fruitless peace talks between Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev and his Armenian counterpart Serzh Sargsyan, organized on the initiative of French President Francois Hollande in Paris. Although the escalation of violence on the border between the Armenian-controlled breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh and Azerbaijan has been growing steadily since the early summer, this particular incident appears to be the highest point yet in the confrontation.
By Daniel Linotte (12/10/2014 issue of the CACI Analyst)
In January 2015, a new regional agreement will enter into force between Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia – it will create the so-called Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), replacing the Eurasian Economic Community (EEC) established in 2006. Taking into account actual trade flows and national economies, the EEU can hardly be justified and should not have much impact on economic integration among its members. Nevertheless, Western countries should still be worried about possible non-economic consequences of the new agreement, especially for governance, democracy and human rights, in countries that are already displaying authoritarian tendencies.
The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst is a biweekly publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, a Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center affiliated with the American Foreign Policy Council, Washington DC., and the Institute for Security and Development Policy, Stockholm. For 15 years, the Analyst has brought cutting edge analysis of the region geared toward a practitioner audience.
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