By Emil A. Souleimanov and Huseyn Aliyev

January 23, 2019, the CACI Analyst

Recent weeks have seen an unprecedented series of high-level meetings of Armenian and Azerbaijani representatives on Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan’s breakaway territory closely linked since the early 1990s to Armenia. Whereas many analysts considered resumed peace talks unlikely after the April 2016 fighting, Armenia’s Velvet Revolution and the replacement of the country’s war-hardened Karabakh elite with a forward-looking and liberal government has provided new stimulus in this regard. As Azerbaijani officials perceive the recent power shift in Armenia as a window of opportunity to advance a peaceful solution to the long-standing conflict, optimism regarding the prospect of a deal appears higher than in many years.

By Stephen Blank

February 13, 2019, the CACI Analyst

When he announced the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Syria, President Trump also announced the departure of one half (7,000) of America’s troops in Afghanistan.  This abrupt decision both damaged the U.S. position in the Middle East and undermined ongoing negotiations with the Taliban over Afghanistan. It upset all the calculations of the Afghan government, leaving it scrambling for a new negotiating and strategic posture, and undid two years of successful albeit modest U.S. policy of renewed economic and political support for Central Asia. This will allow both Beijing and Moscow to respond by extending their influence in Central Asia at America’s expense and to employ their strongest capabilities for doing so.

By Tristan Kenderdine

January 23, 2019, the CACI Analyst

The Ob’-Irtysh is the sixth largest river in the world by drainage area and sixth longest in the world at 5,410 kilometers. It is a broad and deep river, easily navigable by river barge, and also by sea-going vessels deep into the Eurasian continent. Geographically, this river system connects Kazakhstan to the Arctic Ocean, and if sufficient river maritime infrastructure were present then Kazakhstan could avoid the endogenous trade tariff that comes with being landlocked. This has massive implications for Kazakhstan’s potential trade, industry, and wider economic development.

By Neil Hauer

January 17, 2019, the CACI Analyst

The ongoing dispute over the transfer of 10 percent of Ingushetia’s territory to Chechnya shows few signs of calming. Regional authorities, including the heads of both republics, have attempted to both assuage and intimidate the incensed Ingush population with little success. The current redrawing of regional borders, unprecedented in the post-Soviet period, threatens to aggravate similar grievances across the region, while raising questions about the sustainability of its current political structure. Ramzan Kadyrov’s willingness to continue expanding his influence at the cost of his neighbors also serves as an ominous portent for regional stability.