By Richard Weitz (01/22/2015 issue of the CACI Analyst)

Kazakhstan stands out in Central Asia and the South Caucasus for its government’s activist diplomacy directed at building institutions, promoting disarmament, and reducing Eurasian conflicts. Astana has sought to ban nuclear tests globally and extend confidence-building mechanisms throughout Asia, and Kazakhstan’s past conflict resolution efforts have addressed Iran, water disputes, and Afghanistan. Kazakhstan’s current mediation effort concerns the Ukraine conflict. Kazakhstan’s recurring challenge, which may disrupt its Ukrainian efforts, is that its ability to resolve disputes is limited in the absence of supporting partners.

By Erica Marat (01/22/2015 issue of the CACI Analyst)

In Central Asia, developments in Ukraine are often seen through the lens of Kremlin propaganda. In Kazakhstan, provocative statements from high-level Russian politicians regarding statehood and separatism in Kazakhstan were reinterpreted and refuted by experts and MPs. In Kyrgyzstan, discussion has been more decentralized and initiated by pro-Russian MPs and NGOs. President Atambayev and other political actors prefer to ignore them, avoiding to blame the Kremlin directly. The influence of Kremlin propaganda poses a more urgent threat to the sovereignty of both countries than does the possibility of Kremlin hard-policy actions to destabilize parts of Kazakhstan or Kyrgyzstan in a similar fashion to Moscow’s actions in Ukraine.

By Valeriy Dzutsev (01/22/2015 issue of the CACI Analyst)

Amid allegations of abuse, a highly controversial trial ended in lengthy prison sentences to suspected Islamic militants in Kabardino-Balkaria. An already violent republic may experience another spike of violence as the authorities demonstrate their lack of willingness to find political compromises. The absence of political mechanisms for bringing changes to the state system and economic recession are the two other major factors that will likely contribute to the deterioration of the security situation in the republic. Moscow’s reliance on crude force and refusal to use political dialogue to settle differences are contributing factors to the instability in the republic.