By Joseph Larsen
May 16, 2017, the CACI Analyst
The ongoing constitutional reform process clearly indicates that Georgia’s further democratic progress rests on shaky footing. The proposed constitutional amendments would weaken the power and popular mandate of the president and likely give the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party an undue advantage in parliamentary elections. The proposed amendments justifiably raise fears that GD is just the latest political force with ambitions for single-party rule. Rather than locking in the country’s democratic gains, the draft constitution looks likely to consolidate GD’s legislative and executive power.
By Stephen Blank
May 12, 2017, the CACI Analyst
Since the occurrence of large scale fighting around Nagorno-Karabakh in April 2016, resulting in some Azerbaijani gains, there has been a widespread fear that this crisis could easily escalate out of control drawing in not only the two belligerents but also Russia and Turkey. Armenia’s response to the visible enhancement of Azerbaijan’s military capability has marked a qualitative escalation of the crisis’ military potential. Moreover, it has further unmasked the Russian policy of abetting the crisis rather than trying to resolve it, even though Moscow professes to be against renewed hostilities and to want a solution.
By Vladimer Papava
May 4, 2017, the CACI Analyst
During the 2012 and 2016 electoral periods, the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) issued numerous pledges to its voters, including economic guarantees that garnered special attention but nevertheless could not be implemented for several reasons. The GD government’s economic policy has sustained some successes but also reflect features of economic primitivism – simplistic and populist economic policies – that risk hampering the evolution of Georgia’s economy from a consumerist to an innovation economy.
By Sudha Ramachandran
May 2, 2017, the CACI Analyst
Afghanistan’s building of dams on its trans-boundary rivers has drawn the ire of the lower riparian countries. The construction of the Kamal Khan Dam on the Helmand River has caused grave concern in Iran as it could destabilize the situation in its restive Sistan-Baluchistan province. To pressure Kabul to halt construction of the dam, Iran is said to be using Taliban fighters to sabotage projects. Conflicts over water sharing have the potential to turn violent. Iran and Afghanistan need to resolve the issue through talks.
The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst is a biweekly publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, a Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center affiliated with the American Foreign Policy Council, Washington DC., and the Institute for Security and Development Policy, Stockholm. For 15 years, the Analyst has brought cutting edge analysis of the region geared toward a practitioner audience.