Georgian Dream Claims Third Consecutive Victory in Parliamentary Elections
By Natalia Konarzewska
November 16, 2020, the CACI Analyst
For the first time in the country’s history, Georgia’s ruling party has secured a third consecutive term in the parliamentary elections on October 31. Many observers termed the vote pivotal as it was held under the freshly introduced predominantly proportional voting system, expected to break Georgian Dream’s (GD) tight grip on power, and amidst the unprecedented health crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic. The opposition has refused to accept the results due to a large number of irregularities and pledged to boycott the new convocation of parliament.
War in Nagorno-Karabakh Requires a Russian Balancing Act
By Nurlan Aliyev
November 10, 2020, the CACI Analyst
From early November, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin conducted telephone conversations with the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan, thoroughly discussing the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and reaching a truce on November 9. Both countries have criticized Moscow’s position on the current war. Russia has been a security guarantor for Armenia since the 1990s and has more recently become a strategic partner of Azerbaijan. Moscow’s position has raised the question of whether Russia struggles to balance its relations with a strategic ally and a strategic partner, or if the Kremlin’s reluctance to become involved signals a change in policy regarding the former Soviet republics.
From Tamerlane to Alexander the Great: Uzbekistan’s Evolving National Narrative
By Dmitry Shlapentokh
November 3, 2020, the CACI Analyst
After the death of President Islam Karimov, Uzbekistan’s new leadership has engaged in a transformation process structurally similar to those in the post-Stalinist USSR and post-Maoist China. Manifestations of this new reality are manifold. Some are quite visible to the public, such as the recent harsh jail term for Karimov’s daughter, accused of corruption, embezzlement, money laundering and other crimes. Other manifestations are more subtle, yet important in order to understand the new trends. In particular, a shift is underway from the emphasis of Tamerlane (Timur) as the founder of Uzbekistan to the role of Alexander the Great in the country’s antecedents.
Fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh Rages Despite Ceasefires
By Emil A. Souleimanov and Huseyn Aliyev
October 22, 2020, the CACI Analyst
The ongoing conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh saw a number of dramatic developments over the past couple of weeks. Most notably, Azerbaijani forces proved able to breach through Armenian defenses in the south, resulting in Azerbaijan’s rapid advance into both the Nagorno-Karabakh region and adjacent Armenian-controlled territories in the “buffer zone.” This battlefield transformation will likely affect the balance of power on the ground and influence Baku’s willingness and Yerevan’s capacity to negotiate a peaceful settlement. Recent developments on the frontlines will also affect Russia’s and Turkey’s positions and roles in the conflict and the South Caucasus.
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Staff Publications
Op-ed Mamuka Tsereteli and James Jay Carafano, Tsereteli & Carafano: Putin threatens Ukraine – here's the danger and what US, allies should do about it, Fox News, April 13, 2021.
Op-ed S. Enders Wimbish, US withdrawal from Afghanistan spells dangerous geopolitical realignments, The Hill, April 2, 2021.
Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell and S. Frederick Starr, Kazakhstan's Role in International Mediation under First President Nursultan Nazarbayev, November 2020.
Book S. Frederick Starr, Eldar Ismailov, Nazim Muzaffarli, Basic Principles for the Rehabilitation of Azerbaijan’s Post-Conflict Territories, 2010.
Analysis Svante E. Cornell, How Did Armenia So Badly Miscalculate Its War with Azerbaijan? The National Interest, November 14, 2020.
Op-ed Svante E. Cornell, Halting the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan: Russian Peacekeeping is not the Solution, Washington Times, October 20, 2020.
Analysis Svante E. Cornell, Can America Stop a Wider War between Armenia and Azerbaijan? The National Interest, October 5, 2020.
Article S. Frederick Starr, America Inches Toward a Serious Central Asia Strategy, AFPC Defense Dossier, June 3, 2020.
Silk Road Paper Farrukh Irnazarov and Roman Vakulchuk, Discovering Opportunities in the Pandemic? Four Economic Response Scenarios for Central Asia, July 2020.