By Avinoam Idan
February 29th, 2016, The CACI Analyst
The importance of Turkey’s downing of a Russian aircraft and the current Russian-Turkish confrontation is not only connected to the crisis in Syria; it could become a trigger for escalation between Russia and NATO. Since the break-up of the Soviet Union and NATO’s expansion eastward toward the Russian border, Russia has seen NATO as a major security threat to itself and its geostrategic space. Turkey is an important member of NATO, and 2016 is an election year in Washington. This serves as a window of opportunity for President Putin, who can take advantage of tensions with Turkey to undermine NATO’s standing.
By Armen Grigoryan
February 22nd, 2016, The CACI Analyst
The confrontation between Russia and Turkey, and the fast-changing situation on the oil and natural gas markets, have strongly impacted the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict resolution process, as well as the internal state of affairs in both Armenia and Azerbaijan. Russia recently increased its military presence in Armenia, which has unsuccessfully sought support from fellow CSTO members in its confrontation with Azerbaijan. The ongoing clashes along the line of contact imply that the situation will likely remain tense in the short term. Meanwhile, the economic downturn in Armenia and Azerbaijan, as well as in Russia, increases the risk of domestically motivated escalation of the conflict.
By Emil Aslan Souleimanov
February 3rd, 2016, The CACI Analyst
The abrupt deterioration of relations between Russia and Turkey, caused by the downing of a Russian warplane by a Turkish F-16 on the Turkish-Syrian border in late November, has had serious implications for the North Caucasian communities in both Russia and Turkey. While Russia’s imposition of extensive sanctions on Turkey has met displeasure among some of Russia’s Turkic-speaking populations, it has also led to a polarization among Russia’s North Caucasians, some of whom have favored Turkey, an emerging Sunni power, over the state in which they hold citizenship.
By Eduard Abrahamyan
December 3rd, 2015, The CACI Analyst
The Turkish Air force’s downing of a Russian Su-24 warplane on November 24, has deteriorated relations between the two states, already tense after Russia’s increasing military engagement in the Syrian conflict. The incident represented the first direct clash between Moscow’s and Ankara’s interests in the Middle East and could potentially extend the geography of the enduring standoff between Russia and the West. Yet it has been met in the West with some understanding of Russia’s concerns. Turkey’s response to Russia’s consistent violations of its airspace coincided with an anticipated accord between Armenia and Russia on the establishment of a joint missile air defense system that will be deployed during a visit of Russia’s Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev and Minister of Defense Sergey Shoygu to Yerevan.
By Erik Davtyan
November 12th, the CACI Analyst
On October 6 and 7, Turkish military helicopters entered Armenia’s airspace near the village of Baghramyan in the Armavir region and remained for 2-4 minutes. The Head of Armenia’s General Department of Civil Aviation, Artyom Movsesyan, confirmed the violation in an interview to the Hraparak daily and said that Ankara’s explanation was that the helicopters had crossed into Armenian air space due to bad weather conditions. The Armenian-Turkish border has been closed for over 20 years (since 1993) and though the situation along the border is usually secure and calm, rare incidents on or near the border raise deep concerns in Armenia.
The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst is a biweekly publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, a Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center affiliated with the American Foreign Policy Council, Washington DC., and the Institute for Security and Development Policy, Stockholm. For 15 years, the Analyst has brought cutting edge analysis of the region geared toward a practitioner audience.