By Armen Grigoryan (05/27/2015 issue of the CACI Analyst)

The outcome of Turkey’s recent parliamentary elections may partly reduce tensions in relations with Armenia, stopping the mounting hostile rhetoric of recent months. A normalization of bilateral relations should not be expected at this stage, but the trend of increasing cooperation in the humanitarian area, and in culture, tourism, and the media in recent years will likely continue. At the same time, some policies may need to be reassessed in consideration of regional security risks, including the growing level of militarization in the South Caucasus, increased tensions on the line of contact in Nagorno-Karabakh in the absence of progress in the negotiation process, as well as Russia’s capacity for manipulating the regional conflicts.

By Emil Souleimanov (05/13/2015 issue of the CACI Analyst)

April 24th marked the centennial of what many have referred to as the first genocide of the 20th century. The anniversary of the tragic events in eastern Armenia that claimed the lives of hundreds of thousands of predominantly ethnic-Armenian subjects of the Ottoman Empire sparked renewed interest in the historical circumstances of the massacres which the Turkish authorities have refused to acknowledge as an act of genocide. Consequently, the political context of the genocide recognition has again come to the forefront of international reflections on the 1915 events. 

By Armen Grigoryan (03/18/2015 issue of the CACI Analyst)

Armenia’s parliamentary opposition suffered a serious blow as the government managed to disrupt the cooperation that the Prosperous Armenia Party (PAP) and the Armenian National Congress (ANC) had built since 2011. Further atomization of the opposition and consolidation of the regime has become more likely. The regime can also strengthen its position in the context of a protracted dispute with Turkey concerning the Armenian genocide in the Ottoman Empire and its consequences. As a concomitant result, no compromise leading to a breakthrough in negotiations on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue should be expected.