DIM PROSPECTS FOR SARKISSIAN AFTER ARMENIA’S POST-ELECTION VIOLENCE
By Blanka Hancilova (3/5/2008 issue of the CACI Analyst)
The violent suppression of the opposition rally on 1-2 March has opened up a gaping schism in the Armenian body politic. Following the deaths of at least several dozen protesters, the Kocharyan-Sarkissian duo is bound to lose some supporters, while some neutral voters may chose to join the opposition. The battle for power may be drawn out, and its conclusion is far from certain but, so far, it is evident that the foundations of the ruling regime have been profoundly shaken.
KYRGYZ KUMTOR MINE CONTROVERSY HEAT UP
By Nurshat Ababakirov (3/5/2008 issue of the CACI Analyst)
On February 1, the Kyrgyz Finance Police accused Centerra Gold Inc. of tax evasion. It also claims that former Prime Minister Nikolai Tanaev “exceeded his power,†providing Centerra with privileges at the expense of national interests.
RUSSIA TRIES TO EXPAND THE SCO’S MEMBERSHIP
By Stephen Blank (3/5/2008 issue of the CACI Analyst)
On December 27 2007, the same day as former Pakistani Prime Minsiter Benazir Bhutto was assassinated, Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Losyukov suggested that the Shanghai Cooperaion Organization (SCO) expand its membership to include Iran and Pakistan. This new turn by Moscow cries out for explanation. Losyukov conspicously omitted Rusia’s closest Asian partner for many years, India, and supported China’s canddiate and India’s rival, Pakistan.
INTERNATIONAL CHALLENGES ARISE FROM ARMENIA’S PROBLEMATIC ELECTIONS
By Richard Weitz (3/5/2008 issue of the CACI Analyst)
The crisis initiated by last month’s disputed elections in Armenia and the violence of March 1 has confronted the international community with hard choices. On the one hand, the elections were imperfect. On the other hand, the opposition is led by a flawed man whose supporters contributed to the violence.
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