By Richard Weitz (3/11/2009 issue of the CACI Analyst)

International security experts warn that Iran is about to obtain sufficient enriched uranium through its indigenous nuclear program to be able to manufacture at least one nuclear weapon, giving it “nuclear breakout capability.” The Obama administration is now seeking to gain greater Russian assistance to avert such an outcome, offering the prospect of concessions regarding the planned deployments of U.S.

By Sébastien Peyrouse (3/11/2009 issue of the CACI Analyst)

For nearly fifteen years, the idea of building a railway line linking China to the Uzbek part of the Fergana Valley via Kyrgyz territory has run up against multiple problems, divergences of opinion, and technical difficulties. Since 2008, however, things seem to be taking a more positive shape, now that there has been a change of scale in the economic stakes: opening up the Uzbek market would facilitate a boom in trade with China, while Bishkek also hopes to hold off the competition coming from Kazakhstan and Tajikistan and to shore up its status as the foremost platform in Central Asia for the re-export of Chinese products.

BACKGROUND: This railway project was launched in 1996 by Tashkent, and a first tripartite commission met the following year.

By Stephen Blank (3/11/2009 issue of the CACI Analyst)

Even before its 60^th birthday summit in Strasbourg on April 3-4, NATO must decide how it wishes to relate to its Eurasian rivals, the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). NATO Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer has been invited to an SCO summit in Moscow that will discuss Afghanistan on March 27. At the same time, Moscow and its emissaries are incessantly importuning NATO to recognize the CSTO as a legitimate and viable security organization and deal with it accordingly.