ARMENIAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS DECIDED BY THE PAST?
By Blanka Hancilova and Olga Azatyan (2/6/2008 issue of the CACI Analyst)
In fall 2007, Armenia’s first post-Soviet president, Levon Ter-Petrosyan, entered the presidential race, upsetting a seemingly idyllic transfer of power from Robert Kocharyan to his long-time ally, Prime Minister Serzh Sargsyan. Although the campaign proved livelier than expected, Ter-Petrosyan has failed to consolidate the opposition and is unlikely to succeed in his challenge.
KAZAKHSTAN THREATENS OIL EXPORT DUTY FOLLOWING KASHAGAN SETTLEMENT
By Robert M. Cutler (2/6/2008 issue of the CACI Analyst)
Robert M. Cutler
Two weeks after successful renegotiation of Kazakhstan's participation in the Kashagan offshore project, the country's energy minister stated on January 29 that Kazakhstan may impose a duty on nearly half of all exports of crude and oil products beginning in 2009. The Italian company Eni will cease to be operator of the Kashagan consortium, but the Kazakhstan state company KazMunaiGaz will not gain that status, which it coveted.
A MEDVEDEV PRESIDENCY: IMPLICATIONS FOR CHECHEN-RUSSIAN RELATIONS AND RAMZAN KADYROV
By Kevin Daniel Leahy (2/6/2008 issue of the CACI Analyst)
It was never a secret that Ramzan Kadyrov, Chechnya’s pro-Moscow president, wanted his most powerful political benefactor, Vladimir Putin, to retain the Russian presidency for at least another four years. Nevertheless, Kadyrov seems quite at ease with Putin’s chosen successor, current First Deputy Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev. Why is Kadyrov so comfortable with Medvedev’s candidature? How do the two men regard one another? What implications will Medvedev’s expected inauguration hold for future relations between Moscow and Grozny? Â
BACKGROUND: In fact, there is no way of knowing for certain how Dmitri Medvedev regards the situation in Chechnya as it presently stands.
TBILISI AND MOSCOW PONDER NEXT STEPS AFTER SAAKASHVILI’S INAUGURATION
By Richard Weitz (2/6/2008 issue of the CACI Analyst)
Both Georgian and Russian officials have expressed a desire to improve their bilateral relationship. Yet Moscow and Tbilisi each seem to be waiting for the other to take the initiative in overcoming the divisive economic and political issues separating them. In addition, Georgia’s intensified campaign to move closer to NATO will present a major near-term obstacle to an enduring resolution of Georgian-Russian tensions, even if the alliance members themselves remain divided over how to treat Georgia.
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Staff Publications
Silk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, U.S. Policy in Central Asia through Central Asian Eyes, May 2023.
Analysis Svante E. Cornell, "Promise and Peril in the Caucasus," AFPC Insights, March 30, 2023.
Oped S. Frederick Starr, Putin's War In Ukraine and the Crimean War), 19fourtyfive, January 2, 2023
Oped S. Frederick Starr, Russia Needs Its Own Charles de Gaulle, Foreign Policy, July 21, 2022.
Silk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, Rethinking Greater Central Asia: American and Western Stakes in the Region and How to Advance Them, June 2022
Oped Svante E. Cornell & Albert Barro, With referendum, Kazakh President pushes for reforms, Euractiv, June 3, 2022.
Oped Svante E. Cornell Russia's Southern Neighbors Take a Stand, The Hill, May 6, 2022.
Silk Road Paper Johan Engvall, Between Bandits and Bureaucrats: 30 Years of Parliamentary Development in Kyrgyzstan, January 2022.
Oped Svante E. Cornell, No, The War in Ukraine is not about NATO, The Hill, March 9, 2022.
Analysis Svante E. Cornell, Kazakhstan’s Crisis Calls for a Central Asia Policy Reboot, The National Interest, January 34, 2022.
Book S. Frederick Starr and Svante E. Cornell, Strong and Unique: Three Decades of U.S.-Kazakhstan Partnership, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, December 2021.
Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell, S. Frederick Starr & Albert Barro, Political and Economic Reforms in Kazakhstan Under President Tokayev, November 2021.