IS RUSSIA STIRRING UNREST IN CENTRAL ASIA?
By Nicklas Norling (7/1/2009 issue of the CACI Analyst)
Over the past few months, the Russian FSB and other state organs have been pouring out warnings on the imminence of a military conflict and insurgency in Central Asia. These warnings proved partially correct when a border post in Uzbekistan was attacked by militants in late May and a suicide bombing struck Andijan a few days later. To prevent further incursions, Uzbekistan even began digging a 10 feet wide "anti-tank" trench at its border with the Kyrgyz Republic.
RUSSIA, THE WTO, AND THE CIS
By Stephen Blank (7/1/2009 issue of the CACI Analyst)
Russia has announced it will no longer apply for World Trade Organization membership as a single state. Rather, it would only consider joining the WTO if it came in as the head of a customs union, i.e.
IMPLICATIONS OF THE YEVKUROV ATTACK: DOES A NEW REGIONAL ROLE BECKON FOR RAMZAN KADYROV?
By Kevin Daniel Leahy (7/1/2009 issue of the CACI Analyst)
Following an failed assassination attempt on June 22, Ingush President Yunas-Bek Yevkurov is current receiving treatment for serious injuries at a medical facility in Moscow. Although the attack on Yevkurov was probably the work of Islamist militants, it is an arch-enemy of the latter, Chechen president Ramzan Kadyrov, who stands to benefit the most from Yevkurov’s misfortune. The main strategic consequence of Yevkurov’s near-assassination may well be the bestowal of a region-wide mandate for counter-insurgency operations on the ambitious Chechen leader.
BAKIYEV WINS NEW GEOPOLITICAL GAME OVER MANAS BASE
By Erica Marat (7/1/2009 issue of the CACI Analyst)
To many, Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev’s decision on June 23 to continue his anti-terrorism cooperation with the United States was expected. According to the new agreement with the United States, Kyrgyzstan will receive US$60 million in annual rent from the U.S.
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