MOSCOW FACES TOUGH CHOICES REGARDING IRAN
By Richard Weitz (3/11/2009 issue of the CACI Analyst)
International security experts warn that Iran is about to obtain sufficient enriched uranium through its indigenous nuclear program to be able to manufacture at least one nuclear weapon, giving it “nuclear breakout capability.” The Obama administration is now seeking to gain greater Russian assistance to avert such an outcome, offering the prospect of concessions regarding the planned deployments of U.S.
THE GROWING TRADE STAKES OF THE CHINESE-KYRGYZ-UZBEK RAILWAY PROJECT
By Sébastien Peyrouse (3/11/2009 issue of the CACI Analyst)
For nearly fifteen years, the idea of building a railway line linking China to the Uzbek part of the Fergana Valley via Kyrgyz territory has run up against multiple problems, divergences of opinion, and technical difficulties. Since 2008, however, things seem to be taking a more positive shape, now that there has been a change of scale in the economic stakes: opening up the Uzbek market would facilitate a boom in trade with China, while Bishkek also hopes to hold off the competition coming from Kazakhstan and Tajikistan and to shore up its status as the foremost platform in Central Asia for the re-export of Chinese products.
BACKGROUND: This railway project was launched in 1996 by Tashkent, and a first tripartite commission met the following year.
NATO CONFRONTS ITS EURASIAN RIVALS
By Stephen Blank (3/11/2009 issue of the CACI Analyst)
Even before its 60th birthday summit in Strasbourg on April 3-4, NATO must decide how it wishes to relate to its Eurasian rivals, the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). NATO Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer has been invited to an SCO summit in Moscow that will discuss Afghanistan on March 27. At the same time, Moscow and its emissaries are incessantly importuning NATO to recognize the CSTO as a legitimate and viable security organization and deal with it accordingly.
ECONOMIC CRISIS STRENGTHENS RATHER THAN WEAKENS MOSCOW’S INFLUENCE IN THE ‘NEAR ABROAD’
By Marlène Laruelle (2/25/2009 issue of the CACI Analyst)
Russia’s increasingly assertive foreign policy in the former Soviet Union after the war with Georgia has manifested itself in the CSTO’s decision to create a Rapid Reaction Force (RRF), seeking to enhance security in Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus and Central Asia. The creation of the RRF signals not only Russia’s intentions to bolster regional stability, but also its plans to halt NATO’s advance in its traditional “backyard,” bind the CSTO states to stronger commitments, and provide additional guarantees for security in the South Caucasus, especially in Nagorno-Karabakh, following Georgia’s failed blitzkrieg in South Ossetia.
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Staff Publications
Silk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, U.S. Policy in Central Asia through Central Asian Eyes, May 2023.
Analysis Svante E. Cornell, "Promise and Peril in the Caucasus," AFPC Insights, March 30, 2023.
Oped S. Frederick Starr, Putin's War In Ukraine and the Crimean War), 19fourtyfive, January 2, 2023
Oped S. Frederick Starr, Russia Needs Its Own Charles de Gaulle, Foreign Policy, July 21, 2022.
Silk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, Rethinking Greater Central Asia: American and Western Stakes in the Region and How to Advance Them, June 2022
Oped Svante E. Cornell & Albert Barro, With referendum, Kazakh President pushes for reforms, Euractiv, June 3, 2022.
Oped Svante E. Cornell Russia's Southern Neighbors Take a Stand, The Hill, May 6, 2022.
Silk Road Paper Johan Engvall, Between Bandits and Bureaucrats: 30 Years of Parliamentary Development in Kyrgyzstan, January 2022.
Oped Svante E. Cornell, No, The War in Ukraine is not about NATO, The Hill, March 9, 2022.
Analysis Svante E. Cornell, Kazakhstan’s Crisis Calls for a Central Asia Policy Reboot, The National Interest, January 34, 2022.
Book S. Frederick Starr and Svante E. Cornell, Strong and Unique: Three Decades of U.S.-Kazakhstan Partnership, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, December 2021.
Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell, S. Frederick Starr & Albert Barro, Political and Economic Reforms in Kazakhstan Under President Tokayev, November 2021.