VIOLENCE THREATENS TO RISE IN AFGHANISTAN'S NORTHERN PROVINCES
By Haroun Mir (6/27/2007 issue of the CACI Analyst)
Since early 2007, the number of suicide bombings, political assassinations, and armed clashes has risen in the northern provinces of Afghanistan, which indicates a gradual deterioration of the situation in this relatively peaceful part of the country. While the Afghan government and NATO forces have focused on the insurgent-infested territories of southern and eastern Afghanistan, anti-government elements have become increasingly active in the northern and western provinces.
BACKGROUND: The Afghan government and NATO countries have spent most of their energy on reacting to the insurgency in the south, but have failed to put forward a clear vision to bring good governance and economic development to the relatively peaceful northern provinces.
FOREIGN FIGHTERS AND THE CHECHEN RESISTANCE: A RE-APPRAISAL
By Cerwyn Moore (6/13/2007 issue of the CACI Analyst)
The death of Abu Hafs Al-Urdani, the Jordanian ‘Amir’ of the Arab fighters in Chechnya, points towards a series of further questions about foreign influence and radicalisation of elements of the Chechen separatist movement. The death of Abu Hafs seems to indicate the success that pro-Kremlin forces are having isolating and eliminating foreign fighters in so-called ‘special operations’. Indeed, Hafs was one in a succession of figures that pro-Kremlin forces have targeted and ‘liquidated’ over the last six years.
PUTIN’S GABALA GAMBIT: MORE THAN MISSILES
By Stephen Blank (6/13/2007 issue of the CACI Analyst)
While Russian President Vladimir Putin sought to reduce spiraling East-West tensions by proposing that the U.S. and Russia jointly operate a radar at Gabala that Russia leases from Azerbaijan, his Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, called for a halt to the plans for missile defenses in Europe and urged restudy of the entire proposal.
THE GABALA GAMBIT AND AZERBAIJAN’S GEOPOLITICS
By Richard Weitz (6/13/2007 issue of the CACI Analyst)
Russian President Vladimir Putin at the G-8 summit effectively encouraged the United States and its NATO allies to relocate the core of their missile defense architecture from East-Central Europe to the Caucasus region, specifically Azerbaijan’s Gabala radio station. The realization of Putin’s proposal would bring Russia considerable strategic benefits in the region and elsewhere. It is less clear, however, that Azerbaijan and it neighbors would derive equal advantages from its implementation.
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