By Alexandros Petersen and Taleh Ziyadov (1/10/2007 issue of the CACI Analyst)
BACKGROUND: Since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia’s relations with both Azerbaijan and Georgia have been complicated. During the first and second Yeltsin administrations (1992-1999), Moscow\'s ambiguous and chaotic foreign policy led to repeated diplomatic and political crises with Baku and Tbilisi. Hoping to keep the two states under Russia\'s control, the Yeltsin administration applied political pressure and adopted harsh policies towards them.By Stephen Blank (1/10/2007 issue of the CACI Analyst)
BACKGROUND: It is unlikely that the Azerbaijani regime has any illusions about the threat that a nuclear Iran could pose to it and the region. Nonetheless its decision reflects the current geopolitical balance in and around the Caspian with regard to Iranian nuclearization. For some time now there have been signs that Azerbaijan was concerned that any aggravation of the crisis around Iran, e.By Christopher Boucek (1/10/2007 issue of the CACI Analyst)
BACKGROUND: On December 21, it was announced that President-for-life Niyazov had died during the night. Many observers nevertheless believe the announcement was delayed for some time until succession issues were worked out. The creation of the State Security Council to oversee the transition; the immediate appointment of Deputy Prime Minister Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov to be acting president; the abrupt investigation and subsequent arrest of the constitutionally mandated successor Khalk Mazhles Speaker Ovezgeldy Atayev; and the sudden organization of large scale commemoration events all suggest prior coordination and that Niyazov may actually have died some time earlier.By Slavomir Horak (1/10/2007 issue of the CACI Analyst)
BACKGROUND: On December 21, 2006, Turkmenistan woke up to a very strange morning. The first and life president, who had been able to decide about the fate of any Turkmenistani, was no more. His nation was as abandoned as an orphan after the earthquake that devastated Ashgabat in 1948 “much like Niyazov himself, in other words.The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst is a biweekly publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, a Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center affiliated with the American Foreign Policy Council, Washington DC., and the Institute for Security and Development Policy, Stockholm. For 15 years, the Analyst has brought cutting edge analysis of the region geared toward a practitioner audience.
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