“CACI Analyst, November 13, 2013”
Russia Advances Its Position in the South Caucasus
By Armen Grigoryan (the 13/11/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)
Russia continues to limit Armenia’s capability to make independent political decisions and is planning to increase its military presence in Armenia. Shortly, Azerbaijan and Georgia will face stronger pressure and Russia’s efforts to create a new union of the former Soviet republics will intensify. As Russia is unable to advance its goals through “soft power,” offering no attractive model of governance, democratic political culture, or serious economic benefits, it will increasingly rely on “hard power.” Regional policies devised by the U.S. and EU are becoming insufficient as regional dynamics change and new threats emerge.
Georgia to Have New President, PM, and Interior Ministor
By Archil Zhorzholiani (the 13/11/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)
On November 2, outgoing Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili, upon his pre-term resignation decision, nominated incumbent Interior Minister Irakli Gharibashvili as his successor, shortly after Georgia elected a new president.
Azerbaijan Prepares for Shah Deniz 2
By Mina Muradova (the 13/11/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)
Azerbaijan is moving from words to action in delivering gas resources from the Caspian Sea to European markets. President Ilham Aliyev has taken the development of the Southern Gas Corridor under his own supervision. A State Commission chaired by First Vice-Premier Eyub Yagubov has been established by a presidential decree and will be responsible for coordinating all issues related to the Shah Deniz project on a government level, as well as the implementation of the South Caucasus Pipeline Expansion Project, the Trans-Anatolian gas pipeline (TANAP) and the Trans Adriatic pipeline (TAP).
Georgia Better Positioned Than Ukraine Ahead of Vilnius EAP Summit
By Alexander Beck (the 13/11/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)
On November 28-29, six post-Soviet republics will convene in Vilnius for the Eastern Partnership Summit. The “Vilnius Summit” will bring together leaders from Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine with the EU’s high officials to discuss the current state and future objectives of these six potential EU states. Two countries in particular – Georgia and Ukraine – hope to sign trade agreements with the EU, which they trust will further their ambitions to one day enter into the European Union. Both nations, however, enter the Vilnius Summit under significantly differing political situations, despite their similar recent political histories. The political trajectory of both nations, moreover, suggests that Georgia is more likely to sign an economic agreement with the EU than Ukraine this November.
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Staff Publications
Silk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, Greater Central Asia as A Component of U.S. Global Strategy, October 2024.
Analysis Laura Linderman, "Rising Stakes in Tbilisi as Elections Approach," Civil Georgia, September 7, 2024.
Analysis Mamuka Tsereteli, "U.S. Black Sea Strategy: The Georgian Connection", CEPA, February 9, 2024.
Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell, ed., Türkiye's Return to Central Asia and the Caucasus, July 2024.
Book Svante E. Cornell, ed., "The Changing Geopolitics of Central Asia and the Caucasus" AFPC Press/Armin LEar, 2023.
Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell and S. Frederick Starr, Stepping up to the “Agency Challenge”: Central Asian Diplomacy in a Time of Troubles, July 2023.
Silk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, U.S. Policy in Central Asia through Central Asian Eyes, May 2023.