by Mamuka Tsereteli (05/15/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)

The South Caucasus has been on the radar screen of U.S. policy makers since the mid-1990s, when the region was seen as an integral part of the pro-active U.S. security and energy policy towards Europe. Those policies resulted in several pipeline projects that connected Azerbaijani resources via Georgia and Turkey to European and world markets. Today, after several years of decline in U.S. strategic interests towards Europe, the U.S. is revitalizing its focus through the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Initiative. This opens new opportunities for countries that are not members of the European Union, but aspire for integration into the Trans-Atlantic strategic and trade space. 

by Gulshan Sachdeva (05/15/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)

After years of discussions on TAPI and IPI, the Indian public sector giant ONGC now plans to bring Russian hydrocarbons to India via Central Asia, Afghanistan and Pakistan. If taken seriously by all concerned parties, the project has the potential to fundamentally change the energy security scenario of India as well as Pakistan, offer vast new markets for Russian hydrocarbons and provide an economic cushion for Afghanistan in its decade of transformation.

by Robert M. Cutler (05/15/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)

Iranian legislators in Teheran have drafted a bill calling for revision of the 1828 Treaty of Turkmanchay, which divided the multiple Azerbaijani khanates between the Russian and Persian Empires. While this cannot be taken wholly seriously, it is a symbol of the deterioration of bilateral relations. It comes against a background of worsening rhetoric between Teheran and Baku, which have in the past extended into subversive actions by Iran on the territory of Azerbaijan. It is thus in the line of longstanding Iranian threats against Azerbaijani sovereignty and the government of President Ilham Aliyev.

by Valery Dzutsev (05/15/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)

The security situation in the North Caucasus has deteriorated progressively since Moscow expelled foreign organizations from the region. Following the recent Boston Marathon bombing and its purported connection to the North Caucasus, the region and its precarious situation has attained increased international interest. Yet, while several arguments can be made for why an increased international presence in the region would benefit all sides, the Russian government will likely opt for keeping the region isolated from the world while justifying its ongoing military campaign in the North Caucasus as a contribution to global counterterrorism.