Kazakhstan and the Rise of Middle Powers in Central Asia
Svante E. Cornell
July 31, 2024
A key development in Greater Central Asian affairs is the rise of Middle Powers, states that are displaying considerable agency in shaping the region surrounding them and making their mark on international relations writ large. The first Middle Power to emerge and be recognized as such is Kazakhstan, through a combination of it economic might and its strategic approach to foreign relations. As Central Asia’s outside partners reassess strategies toward the region that have been rendered obsolete by events in the past several years, this new reality should feature centrally in approaches to the region.
Afghanistan Is Still There
S. Frederick Starr
July 12, 2024
Since the U.S.'s abrupt departure from Afghanistan, the Taliban government has opened exten- sive contacts with China, Russia, Pakistan, Turkey, and the Gulf States and some have elevated their ties to the ambassadorial level. No region has more at stake in Afghanistan's evolution than Central Asia and none follow developments there more closely. The U.S. should expand its C5+1 ties with Central Asia to include the sharing of information and discussion of policy choices re- garding Afghanistan. Europe and other friendly powers should do likewise.
Iran’s Security Posture in the South Caucasus After the War in Ukraine
Ilya Roubanis
June 6, 2024
Iran’s engagement in the South Caucasus needs a new diplomatic taxonomy. The invasion of Ukraine reframes the way Iran, Russia, and Turkey engage with each other to define this region. Conceptually, for Iran the war in Ukraine is an opportunity to transition from the margins of a global rules-based system to the epicentre of a regional status quo as a rules maker rather than a pariah. The key to this new taxonomy is a working relationship with Turkey and Russia, reigning over the ambitions of Azerbaijan, and restricting the scope for Israeli influence. In this scheme, Armenia is an instrumental junior partner of geopolitical but limited geoeconomics significance.
Friends at Last: The Rapid Rise of Turkey- Uzbekistan Relations
Svante E. Cornell
May 22, 2024
Turkey and Uzbekistan are the two largest countries in the Turkic world. As a result, the rela- tionship between them is a determining factor for the prospects of Turkic cooperation. For most of three decades, the difficulties in the bilateral relationship was a key impediment to Turkey’s influence in Central Asia. Since 2016, however, the arrival of a new leadership in Uzbekistan coincided with Turkey’s turn in a nationalist direction to provide a major boost toward a more fruitful and cooperative relationship. While Turkey’s relations with Uzbekistan have much ground to make up compared to its ties with Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, the two states have made it priority to do just that.
Visit also
Staff Publications
Silk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, Greater Central Asia as A Component of U.S. Global Strategy, October 2024.
Analysis Laura Linderman, "Rising Stakes in Tbilisi as Elections Approach," Civil Georgia, September 7, 2024.
Analysis Mamuka Tsereteli, "U.S. Black Sea Strategy: The Georgian Connection", CEPA, February 9, 2024.
Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell, ed., Türkiye's Return to Central Asia and the Caucasus, July 2024.
Book Svante E. Cornell, ed., "The Changing Geopolitics of Central Asia and the Caucasus" AFPC Press/Armin LEar, 2023.
Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell and S. Frederick Starr, Stepping up to the “Agency Challenge”: Central Asian Diplomacy in a Time of Troubles, July 2023.
Silk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, U.S. Policy in Central Asia through Central Asian Eyes, May 2023.