131030Analyst.pdf

By Richard Weitz (the 30/10/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)

NATO’s inability to commit to a definite role in Afghanistan beyond 2014, along with perceived strategic setbacks in Central Asia and the South Caucasus, are reinforcing the narrative promoted by the Taliban, al-Qaeda, Iran, and to a lesser extent Russia and China, that a war-weary West is abandoning Eurasia. Urgent measures are needed during the next months to reverse this perception before it gains irreversible momentum. The perception is already leading regional players to hedge against the expected consequences of a diminished NATO role. NATO needs to reaffirm and clarify its commitment to Afghanistan and Eurasia.

By Archil Zhorzholiani (the 30/10/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)

Criminal proceedings could be opened against Georgia’s former President Mikheil Saakashvili after the end of his second presidential term and the October 27 presidential elections, Georgian Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili stated on October 21.

131016Analyst.pdf

By Michael Hikari Cecire (the 16/10/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)

Though one of the quieter subplots in Black Sea geopolitics, the emergence of an increasingly cohesive trilateral grouping between Turkey, Georgia, and Azerbaijan is reconfiguring the regional balance of power. This entente was officiated in the 2012 tripartite Trabzon Declaration, but is rooted in growing economic and strategic interdependencies. While the grouping remains vulnerable to both pressure from Moscow and internal challenges, this trilateral entente has the potential to be the prevailing player in the South Caucasus if it maintains its upwards trajectory, and its interests largely overlap with those of the West.