PROTAGONISTS REBUILD THEIR POLITICAL FOUNDATIONS FOLLOWING SPLIT IN CHECHNYA’S REBEL ORGANIZATION
By Kevin Daniel Leahy (4/27/2011 issue of the CACI Analyst)
The dust has yet to settle entirely following the leadership controversy last August which pitted the putative leader of the Caucasus Emirate, Doku Umarov, against a group of erstwhile colleagues in Chechnya’s rebel organisation. Umarov’s steadfast refusal to relinquish his leadership position has not prevented his opponents in Chechnya from restructuring themselves politically and militarily. The leaders of this anti-Umarov constituency command sizeable support and can call upon the services of a number of militarily gifted field commanders.
AFGHANISTAN’S TRADE WITH CENTRAL ASIA REVIVES
By Nicklas Norling (4/27/2011 issue of the CACI Analyst)
A milestone has been reached in Afghanistan. For the first time in almost a century, Afghanistan’s regional trading network is up and running after the Soviet border split the region in 1917 and Afghan tradesmen are now trading with partners in all directions. Recent data from Afghanistan’s Central Statistics Organization (CSO) suggests that Afghanistan’s licit trade with the Central Asian republics is now surpassing trade with Pakistan and India.
SOCAR-DEPA GAS DEAL FAVORS ITGI AS AZERBAIJAN’S STRATEGIC CHOICE
By Gulmira Rzayeva (4/27/2011 issue of the CACI Analyst)
The recent SOCAR-DEPA gas deal demonstrated Greece’s and Azerbaijan’s political support for ITGI at the highest level. The gas sale contract to Greece via Turkey implies the official opening of the Southern Corridor, and that the long-awaited strategic choice of SOCAR and the Shah Deniz Consortium will likely be ITGI and TAP. Thus, the Southern Gas Corridor could open with these two projects instead of Nabucco.
GEORGIA SUFFERS SET-BACK AT THE INTERNATIONAL COURT OF JUSTICE, BUT WINS ACCEPTANCE OF RUSSIA AS A CONFLICT PARTY
By Johanna Popjanevski (4/13/2011 issue of the CACI Analyst)
On April 1 the International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruled that it lacked jurisdiction with regard to a claim filed by Georgia in August 2008, concerning acts of cleansing and discrimination of ethnic Georgians before and during the Georgia-Russia war. The Court’s unusually strong emphasis on procedural requirements, along with divided views among its members, suggests that the Court had difficulties tackling the political dimensions of the case.
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