PROSPECTS FOR ‘KYRGYZ SCENARIO’ DEBATED IN TAJIKISTAN
By Alexander Sodiqov (5/26/2010 issue of the CACI Analyst)
Following the popular revolt that brought an end to President Kurmanbek Bakiyev’s regime in Kyrgyzstan in April 2010, Tajikistan’s government termed the crisis an “internal affair” of Kyrgyzstan and limited its official comments to the events confronting its southern neighbor. Despite the official silence, events in Kyrgyzstan have generated considerable debate among Tajik analysts and opposition leaders over whether the Kyrgyz scenario is possible in Tajikistan. Although there are ample similarities between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan when it comes to political and socioeconomic settings, most argue that a Kyrgyz scenario is impossible in Tajikistan due to major differences between the two countries in foreign and domestic politics, and in post-independence experiences.
LESSON FROM KYRGYZSTAN: IS THERE A SHORTCUT TO DEMOCRACY?
By Rafis Abazov (5/13/2010 issue of the CACI Analyst)
On April 26, 2010, the constitutional working group published a draft constitution for the Kyrgyz Republic, and the head of the interim government announced that the new constitution would be finalized on May 19. These developments have deeply divided the public, local experts and politicians. One group welcomes the decision, stating that the new constitution is a step toward stabilizing the political situation in the country.
KADYROV’S CONTACTS WITH ISRAEL AND THE JIHADIST THREAT
By Dmitry Shlapentokh (5/13/2010 issue of the CACI Analyst)
A visible increase has taken place in contacts between members of the North Caucasian elite and Israel. Ramzan Kadyrov’s recent overtures to Israel, in which he acted as an independent ruler, rather than as a governor of the Russian Federation, should demonstrate that Moscow has little power over his actions. By closing its eyes to such activities on part of the North Caucasian elite, or even possibly encouraging them, the Kremlin wants to increase its contacts with Israel.
RESUMED DEADLOCK IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS AT THE ANNIVERSARY OF THE KARABAKH CEASE-FIRE
By Haroutiun Khachatrian (5/13/2010 issue of the CACI Analyst)
The process of Turkish-Armenian normalization, which could potentially have brought improvements to the regional inter-state political climate in the South Caucasus and helped resolving the current deadlock, is suspended, having encountered serious domestic obstacles to ratification in Turkey. This seemingly puts an end to the international mediation efforts to defuse the explosive situation in the region. As a result, Armenia and Azerbaijan have toughened their positions on Nagorno-Karabakh, and the situation has become increasingly dangerous ahead of the 16th anniversary of the cease-fire in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
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Staff Publications
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Analysis Svante E. Cornell, "Promise and Peril in the Caucasus," AFPC Insights, March 30, 2023.
Oped S. Frederick Starr, Putin's War In Ukraine and the Crimean War), 19fourtyfive, January 2, 2023
Oped S. Frederick Starr, Russia Needs Its Own Charles de Gaulle, Foreign Policy, July 21, 2022.
Silk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, Rethinking Greater Central Asia: American and Western Stakes in the Region and How to Advance Them, June 2022
Oped Svante E. Cornell & Albert Barro, With referendum, Kazakh President pushes for reforms, Euractiv, June 3, 2022.
Oped Svante E. Cornell Russia's Southern Neighbors Take a Stand, The Hill, May 6, 2022.
Silk Road Paper Johan Engvall, Between Bandits and Bureaucrats: 30 Years of Parliamentary Development in Kyrgyzstan, January 2022.
Oped Svante E. Cornell, No, The War in Ukraine is not about NATO, The Hill, March 9, 2022.
Analysis Svante E. Cornell, Kazakhstan’s Crisis Calls for a Central Asia Policy Reboot, The National Interest, January 34, 2022.
Book S. Frederick Starr and Svante E. Cornell, Strong and Unique: Three Decades of U.S.-Kazakhstan Partnership, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, December 2021.
Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell, S. Frederick Starr & Albert Barro, Political and Economic Reforms in Kazakhstan Under President Tokayev, November 2021.