By Robert M. Cutler (10/19/2011 issue of the CACI Analyst)

On October 4, Russia’s Prime Minister Vladimir Putin published an article in Izvestiia, “A New Integration Project for Eurasia - The Future Is Being Born Today,” that announces the initiative to create a supranational political structure on top of the CIS Customs Union in which Belarus and Kazakhstan participate along with Russia. While the prospects for its realization are cloudy at best, the declaration suggests a reorientation of Russian foreign policy strategy under soon-to-be-president Putin that will de-emphasize Europe and the West in general to the extent possible.

BACKGROUND: Throughout the 1990s in the post-Soviet jumble, continuing configurations and reconfigurations of integration and cooperation arrangements appeared on and disappeared from the scene, of which the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) is likely the best known.

By Alexander Sodiqov (10/19/2011 issue of the CACI Analyst)

Muhiddin Kabiri’s reelection as chairman of the Islamic Revival Party of Tajikistan signals that he has managed to foster internal cohesion within the party and consolidate his power. It also signals that Kabiri’s efforts to reform the group find broad support. Kabiri appears set to use this support to continue transforming the IRPT into a conventional political party, including by deemphasizing its Islamic identity.

By Erica Marat (10/19/2011 issue of the CACI Analyst)

Kyrgyzstan is about to hold presidential elections that will potentially mark the first peaceful and lawful transfer of power in the country and in the region. Most in Kyrgyzstan expect Prime Minister Almazbek Atambayev to win the elections. The question, however, remains whether the elections will proceed without major violations and move Kyrgyzstan one step further in political development, or cause a deeper divide within the country into north and south.