RECONCILING WITH THE TALIBAN: OPPORTUNITIES AND PITFALLS
By Richard Weitz (2/17/2010 issue of the CACI Analyst)
The main topic of discussion at the January 28 London conference on Afghanistan was the renewed coalition support for the Afghan government’s reintegration and reconciliation initiatives. With varying degrees of enthusiasm, the United States, the United Kingdom, and other members of the international coalition endorsed Afghan President Hamid Karzai’s call for national reconciliation. Seeking to weaken the Taliban insurgents by dividing the group’s less committed members from its hard-core supporters makes tactical sense, but the initiatives entail serious risks that must be understood and reduced.
UKRAINIAN ELECTIONS COMPLICATE SOUTHERN ENERGY CORRIDOR
By Robert M. Cutler (2/17/2010 issue of the CACI Analyst)
Viktor Yanukovych came first in the presidential elections in Ukraine, but Yuliya Tymoshenko has instructed lawyers to bring to the courts evidence of voting irregularities to put Yanukovych’s margin of victory under question. Even if the latter is able to muster a negative majority to oust her from office and form his own parliamentary majority, he may be forced to call new parliamentary elections. Nevertheless, he has already moved on the energy front through floating new proposals, if not yet able to offer them formally for legislative consideration.
MOSCOW APPOINTS COMPROMISE CANDIDATE TO LEAD TROUBLED DAGESTAN
By Kevin Daniel Leahy (2/17/2010 issue of the CACI Analyst)
The Kremlin has sprung something of a surprise by re-embracing the influential Magomedov clan in its efforts to bring stability to the republic of Dagestan. The head of this clan, Magomedali Magomedov, steered Dagestan through a difficult post-Soviet transition phase before finally being replaced in 2006. It is not entirely clear what lies behind the Kremlin’s change of heart regarding the utility of the Magomedov clan.
MEDVEDEV CREATES NEW ADMINISTRATIVE DISTRICT IN RUSSIA’S SOUTH, NAMES KHLOPONIN AS ENVOY
By Kevin Daniel Leahy (2/3/2010 issue of the CACI Analyst)
On January 19, President Dmitri Medvedev finally made good on his pledge to invest one particular official with ‘personal responsibility’ for overseeing the situation in the Northern Caucasus. Alexander Khloponin is the president’s plenipotentiary representative to the ‘North Caucasus Federal District’, a new jurisdictional entity created by Medvedev, and has also been awarded the rank of a deputy prime minister in the federal government. Given that Medvedev has identified an underperforming economy as the main reason for the instability in the region, how does the new envoy propose to stimulate the economic situation there?
BACKGROUND: The new North Caucasus Federal District (SKFD) will include Chechnya, Dagestan, Ingushetia, Karachaevo-Cherkessia, Kabardino-Balkaria, North Ossetia and Stavropol Krai.
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Staff Publications
Silk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, U.S. Policy in Central Asia through Central Asian Eyes, May 2023.
Analysis Svante E. Cornell, "Promise and Peril in the Caucasus," AFPC Insights, March 30, 2023.
Oped S. Frederick Starr, Putin's War In Ukraine and the Crimean War), 19fourtyfive, January 2, 2023
Oped S. Frederick Starr, Russia Needs Its Own Charles de Gaulle, Foreign Policy, July 21, 2022.
Silk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, Rethinking Greater Central Asia: American and Western Stakes in the Region and How to Advance Them, June 2022
Oped Svante E. Cornell & Albert Barro, With referendum, Kazakh President pushes for reforms, Euractiv, June 3, 2022.
Oped Svante E. Cornell Russia's Southern Neighbors Take a Stand, The Hill, May 6, 2022.
Silk Road Paper Johan Engvall, Between Bandits and Bureaucrats: 30 Years of Parliamentary Development in Kyrgyzstan, January 2022.
Oped Svante E. Cornell, No, The War in Ukraine is not about NATO, The Hill, March 9, 2022.
Analysis Svante E. Cornell, Kazakhstan’s Crisis Calls for a Central Asia Policy Reboot, The National Interest, January 34, 2022.
Book S. Frederick Starr and Svante E. Cornell, Strong and Unique: Three Decades of U.S.-Kazakhstan Partnership, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, December 2021.
Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell, S. Frederick Starr & Albert Barro, Political and Economic Reforms in Kazakhstan Under President Tokayev, November 2021.