TAPI: Time for the Big Push
by Gulshan Sachdeva (07/10/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)
Despite many positive developments in the last few years, the future of the ambitious TAPI gas pipeline project is still in doubt. All four partner countries are making serious preparations for the project. However, the uncertainty surrounding post-2014 Afghanistan has dampened the motivation among major energy companies to act as lead consortium partners of the project. In these circumstances, multilateral agencies like the Asian Development Bank may have to play a crucial role in salvaging the project. Likewise, if the U.S. administration is serious about its support for TAPI, it should put its full diplomatic and financial weight behind it.
The Political Sources Of Kyrgyzstan's Recent Unrest
by Johan Engvall (06/26/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)
Recent protests in Issyk-Kul and Jalal-Abad regions demanding the nationalization of Kumtor gold mine and the release of jailed members of parliament have demonstrated the limited ability of Kyrgyzstan’s central government to enforce law and order throughout the country. There are political sources of this social and economic instability, notably, Kyrgyzstan’s transformation to a semi-parliamentary system of government in 2010 has rooted out corrupt one-family rule but instituted a system of coalition-based corruption, where the country’s major economic, political and territorial assets are divided among political parties with a detrimental impact on their ability to govern the country.
Is The Ice Cracking Around Nagorno-Karabakh
by Stephen Blank (06/26/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)
At the recent G-8 summit the three members of the Minsk Group, Russia, the U.S., and France, issued a statement calling on Azerbaijan and Armenia to move forward on this issue. Yet, the leaders of the Minsk Group largely repeated what they have done for years; they punted, took refuge in meaningless, high-flown, and contradictory rhetoric, and blamed everything on Baku and Yerevan. Although the two sides are not without blame, as suggested by the tense situation in Nagorno-Karabakh with periodic episodes of one or another side creating incidents that could escalate into outright conflict as well as Armenian and Azerbaijani policy, the refusal of the Minsk Group to act only ensures the continuation of this spiral.
Kyrgyzstan's Decision To Renounce Manas Transit Center Favors Russia
by Erica Marat (06/26/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)
The Kyrgyz parliament has voted to support President Almazbek Atambaev’s decision to renounce the contract for the U.S. transit center at Manas airport. The main reasons for the parliament’s vote were primarily a response to the Kremlin’s decision to write off a large chunk of Kyrgyzstan’s debt and to Moscow’s promise to construct hydropower plants in Kyrgyzstan, as well as to Washington’s abrupt decision to dismiss criminal charges against Maksim Bakiev, son of former president Kurmanbek Bakiev. In the meantime, uncertainty lingers regarding the finality of the parliament’s decision and how the president will proceed with his plan to build an international transit hub at Manas once the U.S. leaves.
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