Russia's Diminishing Power Projection Options In Central Asia
by Roger N. McDermott (03/06/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)
On February 17-21, Russia conducted its first surprise military inspection exercise in twenty years. The exercise in the Southern and Central Military Districts (MDs) tested combat readiness levels in key formations. These involved the elite Airborne Forces (VDV), Ground Forces brigades, Military Transport Aviation (VTA) and the defense ministry’s 12th Main Directorate. The top brass criticized the performance of officers and soldiers and equipment deficiencies following the exercise, which also revealed the limited power projection options the Russian military possesses in relation to Central Asia.
What Options For U.S. Influence In Central Asia After Manas?
by Jacob Zenn (03/06/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)
Kyrgyzstan has made clear that the U.S. must withdraw all of its troops from the Transit Center in Manas when the current lease agreement expires in the summer of 2014. During the ten-plus years of U.S. presence in Afghanistan, the U.S. depended on Central Asian countries, particularly Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, to funnel military supplies through the Northern Distribution Network into Afghanistan. This led to an increase in U.S. military and political influence in Central Asia. However, with the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and Kyrgyzstan opposing continuing the lease, there are doubts whether the U.S. will retain any influence in Central Asia after 2014.
Uzbekistan's Ban On Sale Of Foreign Banknotes Signals Upcoming Devaluation Of Uzbek Currency
by Nargiza Majidova (03/06/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)
Starting from February 1, 2013, a ban on purchasing cash in foreign currency was introduced in Uzbekistan. From now on foreign currency banknotes can be obtained only through non-cash operations as a prepayment order on the bank account. On February 4, regional mass media reported that Uzbekistan’s government was ordered to reduce the quantity of imported goods, and to substitute these with locally produced ones. These currency regulations of Uzbekistan’s National Bank could signal an upcoming devaluation of Uzbekistan’s currency. An alternative interpretation is that the measure aims to preserve Uzbekistan’s hard currency reserves and to protect the business interest of local entrepreneurs.
Kazakhstan Offers Mediation In Nuclear Talks Between Iran And West
by Georgiy Voloshin (03/06/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)
On February 26-27, Kazakhstan’s southern capital, the city of Almaty, hosted another round of international talks regarding Iran’s nuclear program. This high-level meeting attended by representatives of the P5+1 group of countries and Iranian officials was earlier confirmed by the European External Action Service, which is currently acting as one of Tehran’s main interlocutors. Although Kazakhstan is not formally involved as a negotiating partner, it decided once again to use its global reputation as a firm supporter of the International Atomic Energy Agency and the non-proliferation policy in providing its territory for the first round of talks in 2013.
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Staff Publications
Silk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, U.S. Policy in Central Asia through Central Asian Eyes, May 2023.
Analysis Svante E. Cornell, "Promise and Peril in the Caucasus," AFPC Insights, March 30, 2023.
Oped S. Frederick Starr, Putin's War In Ukraine and the Crimean War), 19fourtyfive, January 2, 2023
Oped S. Frederick Starr, Russia Needs Its Own Charles de Gaulle, Foreign Policy, July 21, 2022.
Silk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, Rethinking Greater Central Asia: American and Western Stakes in the Region and How to Advance Them, June 2022
Oped Svante E. Cornell & Albert Barro, With referendum, Kazakh President pushes for reforms, Euractiv, June 3, 2022.
Oped Svante E. Cornell Russia's Southern Neighbors Take a Stand, The Hill, May 6, 2022.
Silk Road Paper Johan Engvall, Between Bandits and Bureaucrats: 30 Years of Parliamentary Development in Kyrgyzstan, January 2022.
Oped Svante E. Cornell, No, The War in Ukraine is not about NATO, The Hill, March 9, 2022.
Analysis Svante E. Cornell, Kazakhstan’s Crisis Calls for a Central Asia Policy Reboot, The National Interest, January 34, 2022.
Book S. Frederick Starr and Svante E. Cornell, Strong and Unique: Three Decades of U.S.-Kazakhstan Partnership, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, December 2021.
Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell, S. Frederick Starr & Albert Barro, Political and Economic Reforms in Kazakhstan Under President Tokayev, November 2021.