Tajikistan's Private Sector Loses Its Leader and Coordinating Council
By Oleg Salimov (the 04/09/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)
The upcoming presidential elections in Tajikistan this fall will be a determinant of political developments in the country in coming years. There is little doubt that the current president Emomali Rakhmon will seize the opportunity to stay in power for a fourth presidential term secured by a 2003 referendum. While there has been no formal statement on whether Rakhmon will run again, his political opponents have recently experienced increased pressure, implying that Rakhmon is preparing the ground for a head start. The arrest of Zaid Saidov, a businessman and leader of the newly founded political party New Tajikistan, demonstrates the precautions taken by the Tajik government ahead of the presidential elections.
North Caucasian Fighters Join Syrian Civil War
by Emil Souleimanov (the 08/21/13 issue of the CACI Analyst)
In mid-July, the Chechen Republic‘s President Ramzan Kadyrov admitted that Chechens have taken part in the Syria civil war on the side of the Free Syrian Army (FSA), allegations that he categorically denied one year ago. Simultaneously, the formal leader of the Caucasus Emirate Doku Umarov reversed his stance on the participation of Chechens in Syria. Umarov has earlier appealed to Chechen and North Caucasian youth to refrain from joining the Syria jihad and instead fight the “infidels” in their native land, but has now expressed his support for North Caucasian jihadists going to Syria, with the ultimate goal for them to return and join the insurgency upon their return from the Middle East.
Russia Pressures Armenia to Join Customs Union
by Stephen Blank (the 08/21/13 issue of the CACI Analyst)
The centerpiece of current Russian foreign policy is integrating as many post-Soviet states as possible in what will ultimately be a Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). The first step of this process is to join a Customs Union and Russia is bringing enormous pressure to bear upon Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Ukraine, and now Armenia to join. It is being made clear to these states that if they join the EEU or what Moscow calls EURASEC, they will not be able to join other trade organizations, e.g. those inherent in the EU’s Eastern Partnership. While most publicity has focused on Ukraine, recent Russian policy towards Armenia is no less revealing of Moscow’s tactics and goals.
Should Kyrgyzstan Search for Investors at Home?
by Rafis Abazov and Talaibek Koichumanov (the 08/21/13 issue of the CACI Analyst)
The Kyrgyz government has announced new initiatives aiming to attract foreign direct investments (FDIs) into the Kyrgyz national economy. The country needs significant resources to deal with chronic mass unemployment – especially high among rural youth – as well as widespread poverty and an aging manufacturing infrastructure. Yet, the experience of some developing countries, such as Bangladesh, India and China, suggests that help might be much closer than politicians think: in the so-called Bamboo Capitalism, diaspora-sponsored business development. According to various estimates, the rapidly growing Kyrgyz diaspora and domestic Kyrgyz businesses keep between US$ 1 and US$ 3 billion in foreign accounts, properties, businesses and equities. Can Kyrgyzstan utilize this unique opportunity to revive its national economy?
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