Central Asian Union and the Obstacles to Integration in Central Asia
By Nurzhan Zhambekov (01/07/2015 issue of the CACI Analyst)
After the fall of the Soviet Union, the two largest Central Asian states of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan took the initiative for Central Asian integration. In January 1994 an agreement was signed in Tashkent for the creation of a Central Asian Union, with Kyrgyzstan joining shortly thereafter. This marked the start of Central Asia’s integration process, aiming to develop and implement projects to deepen economic integration. Today, the idea of Central Asian integration is considered dead, despite numerous attempts primarily by Kazakhstan to revive it. The internal differences between Central Asian states, and their subjection to the influence of external powers, has made the prospect of regional integration increasingly remote.
Attacks in Grozny Unlikely to Revive the Chechen Insurgency
By Emil Souleimanov (12/10/2014 issue of the CACI Analyst)
On December 4, a group of Chechen insurgents in three vehicles, despite being detected in the outskirts of Chechnya’s capital city, carried out an unprecedented attack on Grozny. After hours of fighting, insurgents, isolated in the republic’s Press House building and a nearby school, situated in the city center, killed 14 and wounded three dozen local policemen. In turn, 11 insurgents were killed. The December 4 attack raised questions about the strength of the Chechen insurgency and the capability of local authorities to stem it. With a three years’ break, the insurgency has been ongoing for two decades.
Turkistan Islamic Party Raises Profile in Syria
By Jacob Zenn (12/10/2014 issue of the CACI Analyst)
The Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP) is a Pakistan-based militant group operating with the Pakistani Taliban and Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU). Led by Uighurs from China’s Xinjiang Province (which the TIP calls “East Turkistan”), the TIP seeks the “liberation” of Xinjiang and its incorporation into a Central Asian Caliphate called “Turkistan.” In 2014, the TIP has sought to emphasize its role in Syria in its propaganda. This suggests that, like the IMU and some Pakistani Taliban factions, the TIP receives inspiration and seeks funding from the Islamic State (also known as ISIS). This is but one of many examples of ISIS’s increasing traction among Central Asian militants.
The Nagorno-Karabakh Peace Process After the Helicopter Incident
By Huseyn Aliyev (12/10/2014 issue of the CACI Analyst)
On November 12, an Armenian combat helicopter was shot down by Azerbaijani defense forces after an attempted attack on Azerbaijani positions over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh. The incident took place just two weeks after the fruitless peace talks between Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev and his Armenian counterpart Serzh Sargsyan, organized on the initiative of French President Francois Hollande in Paris. Although the escalation of violence on the border between the Armenian-controlled breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh and Azerbaijan has been growing steadily since the early summer, this particular incident appears to be the highest point yet in the confrontation.
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