Kazakhstan and Neighbors Seek Strategies to Counter Emerging Threats
By Jakob Zenn (04/29/2015 issue of the CACI Analyst)
Central Asian governments are speaking openly about threats they face from the multiple security and economic crises surrounding their region. In November 2014, Kazakhstan’s President Nursultan Nazarbayev discussed in his annual address the region’s “worsening geopolitical context” with new crises in Ukraine, as well as in Syria and Iraq, the still unresolved “old” conflict in Afghanistan, and the negative impact on Central Asian economies resulting from Western sanctions on Russia. To counter these negative security and economic trends, Central Asian governments have adopted various approaches ranging from more progressive ones in Kazakhstan to stagnant or indecisive ones in other countries.
China and Pakistan Prepare to Establish Economic Corridor
By Ghulam Ali (04/15/2015 issue of the CACI Analyst)
Beijing and Islamabad have completed the groundwork for the implementation of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). A final decision with a clear roadmap is expected during Chinese President Xi Jingping’s much-awaited visit to Pakistan in May 2015. The CPEC is the largest project not only in the relationship between the two states, but also in Pakistan’s history. The future of Sino-Pakistan relations will hinge upon corridor’s success.
Dagestan’s Insurgents Split over Loyalties to Caucasus Emirate and IS
By Emil Souleimanov (04/15/2015 issue of the CACI Analyst)
Recent months have been hectic for Dagestani jihadists. Since mid-2014, this hotbed of the North Caucasian insurgency has witnessed a gradual split, with numerous Dagestan-based jihadist commanders pledging oath (bayat) to the leader of the Islamic State, Abu-Bakr al-Baghdadi. In response, the Caucasus Emirate’s formal leader, Aliaskhab Kebekov, himself a Dagestani, criticized the disloyal commanders for splitting the ranks of the local insurgency. In mid-February, the newly appointed amir of the Dagestani Vilayat, Kamil Saidov, joined Kebekov in his condemnation of those submitting to Baghdadi’s authority. Given the North Caucasian and Dagestani jamaats' weakening capacity, the ongoing developments in Dagestan could break the unity in this last bastion of the regional insurgency.
Georgia’s Economic Crisis and Political Brinkmanship
By Ariela Shapiro (04/15/2015 issue of the CACI Analyst)
Since November 2014, Georgia’s national currency, the lari (GEL), has devalued an estimated 28 percent against the dollar, measuring at 2.23 to 1 dollar as of April 10, 2015. This currency crisis has severely impacted local Georgian consumers and the operating capacity of Georgian businesses while undermining foreign investor confidence. The current crisis was externally catalyzed by falling oil prices, the Russian ruble’s harsh inflation and regional political and economic destabilization due to the Ukrainian conflict. Domestically, the economic crisis has been exacerbated by the Georgian government’s ambiguous, often ad hoc, economic strategy. Amidst the failing economy and falling domestic confidence, the Georgian political landscape remains deeply fractured and no party has demonstrated political willingness to create a multi-partisan solution to the economic crisis.
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