By Dr. Theodore Karasik (5/23/2001 issue of the CACI Analyst)
BACKGROUND: Kazakhstan is both blessed and cursed. Producing over half a million barrels of oil per day (bbl/d) and with well over 60 billion barrels of estimated oil reserves, landlocked Kazakhstan has the potential to be a major, regional oil producer. Unfortunately, with a current population of less than 17 million and the increasing outflow of skilled workers, the remaining Kazakhs face the ravages of infectious diseases and future generations that are stunted and weak.
By Armenia has for long been ruled by an elite whose main concern has been neither the economy of the c (5/23/2001 issue of the CACI Analyst)
The Nagorno-Karabakh war is over a decade old and has hitherto defied solution. International efforts have foundered upon rivalries among the key players, locally Armenia and Azerbaijan and internationally Russia, Turkey, and the United States. The prospective importance of the huge energy supplies at stake has also complicated efforts at peacemaking.
By Blanka Hancilova (5/23/2001 issue of the CACI Analyst)
BACKGROUND: Since the May 1994 cease-fire, which left Nagorno Karabakh de facto independent and with a territorial link to Armenia, the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia is effectively in deadlock. Since spring 1999, both the level of dialogue between the parties and the degree of international involvement increased considerably. The presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan, Robert Kocharian and Heidar Aliyev, have met sixteen times to discuss the conflict.
By Robert M. Cutler (12/5/2001 issue of the CACI Analyst)
BACKGROUND: After Kazakhstan unwillingly obtained its independence upon the disintegration of the Soviet regime, Nazarbaev tacitly proclaimed war against the bloated state bureaucracy he inherited, which also constituted a potential opposition power base. After the first post-Soviet parliament was elected in 1994, on the basis of the country's first post-Soviet constitution, lobbies and alliances began to emerge between parliamentary groupings on the one hand, and the lower and middle ranks of the ministerial structures on the other. Nazarbaev engineered the parliament's dissolution in 1994 when, on the basis of an accusation of electoral fraud by an anti-Nazarbaev candidate in a single electoral district, the Constitutional Court ruled the entire parliament to be illegal.
The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst is a biweekly publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, a Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center affiliated with the American Foreign Policy Council, Washington DC., and the Institute for Security and Development Policy, Stockholm. For 15 years, the Analyst has brought cutting edge analysis of the region geared toward a practitioner audience.