By Ahmed Rashid (5/23/2001 issue of the CACI Analyst)
BACKGROUND: Tajikistan faces major threats which include a likely renewed summer offensive by the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) which has bases in Taliban-controlled Afghanistan, but also has military camps and recruiting centers in the Tavildera valley in central Tajikistan; the threat from the Taliban and continued fighting on the Afghanistan-Tajikistan border between the Taliban and the opposition United Front led by Ahmad Shah Masud; drug trafficking from Afghanistan and a worsening economic crisis due to the earlier neglect of the international donor community to fulfill its pledges after the 1997 ceasefire and establishment of a coalition government which ended the five year civil war, to help reconstruct Tajikistan. The US and other leading powers have finally recognized what President Imomali Rakhmanov has long said, that sustaining the coalition government in Dushanbe is vital for peace and security in Central Asia and that it could provide a model for an eventual peaceful settlement of the civil war in Afghanistan.
General Franks visited Dushanbe on May 16, where he conveyed a message from the Bush administration that the US considers Tajikistan ‘a strategically significant country’ for peace and security in Central Asia.
By Abdukhalil Razzakov (6/6/2001 issue of the CACI Analyst)
BACKGROUND: The end of 20th century and the beginning of 21st has seen serious drought in Central Asia and adjoining regions. The water problem has never been so acute in the post-independent history of the Central Asian states. The ecologic situation in the Aral Sea basin is disastrous; only one third of the Aral Sea’s surface remains.
By Ivlian Haindrava (6/6/2001 issue of the CACI Analyst)In fact there is nothing new in the idea of Cabinet. Before the adoption of the Constitution in August 1995, the Cabinet system did exist in Georgia though poorly operating and characterized by an amorphous structure. The 1995 Georgian Constitution established a presidential republic with the President being both the Head of State and the chief executive.
By Mikha Gegeshidze (5/23/2001 issue of the CACI Analyst)Sixty troopers of Kojori rapid response battalion of the Ministry of Defense responded by blocking the road to Tbilisi, showing the government’s fear that the detachment would march on the capital. According to eyewitness reports, however, the Mukhrovani base was never surrounded by the armed forces, contrary to later claims by the leader of the CUG fraction, Revaz Adamia. Apparently, the government never even considered the use of military force.
The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst is a biweekly publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, a Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center affiliated with the American Foreign Policy Council, Washington DC., and the Institute for Security and Development Policy, Stockholm. For 15 years, the Analyst has brought cutting edge analysis of the region geared toward a practitioner audience.