RUSSIA’S ENERGY GAMBIT: IT WON’T WORK IN AZERBAIJAN
By Fariz Ismailzade (1/25/2006 issue of the CACI Analyst)
BACKGROUND: Following the Georgian and Ukrainian velvet revolutions and the serious deterioration of Russia’s influence in these republics, Kremlin strategists have decided to increase the price of energy supplies to select former Soviet republics. This was done in an effort both to show to the former vassals where the real power center in their neighborhood lies, and to discourage their aspirations to join Western institutions such as NATO and the EU. The policy of using energy tools for geopolitical dominance over former Soviet republics began in earnest with President Putin’s presidency in 2000.POLITICAL VIOLENCE ON THE RISE IN KYRGYZSTAN
By Anara Tabyshalieva (1/25/2006 issue of the CACI Analyst)
BACKGROUND: In the post-Soviet setting, the rise of criminal groups constitutes a serious security threat to the government, especially in small states like Kyrgyzstan where security forces were practically unable to stop the growth of organized crime in the last fifteen years. Criminal groups have recruited many unemployed sportsmen in their patronage networks since the sports industry inherited from Soviet times declined rapidly. Not surprisingly, criminals penetrated into sport associations as their sponsors and supporters.POST-ELECTION KAZAKHSTAN: TOWARD A DEMOCRATIC BREAKTHROUGH?
By S. Frederick Starr (1/11/2006 issue of the CACI Analyst)
BACKGROUND: To take root, democracy must move beyond the national level and be accompanied by a degree of decentralization, in which more decisions affecting local life are made and implemented at local levels, and under which provincial, district, and city administrations enjoy the power to levy certain taxes to meet local needs. And it must also be translated into self-government, under which the provincial and district electorates gain the right to elect governors (akims) and district heads without interference from Astana. Outside the Baltic states, neither decentralization nor self-government has made headway in the former Soviet Union.THE GREAT GAME GOES TO SEA: NAVAL RIVALRIES IN THE CASPIAN
By Stephen Blank (1/11/2006 issue of the CACI Analyst)
BACKGROUND: The Caspian Sea is a hotly contested, albeit enclosed sea. In 2001, Iran threatened Azerbaijani oil platforms and has since then often lambasted Kazakhstan’s energy platforms. Russia has retaliated since then by holding extensive maneuvers and by building up its Caspian Flotilla.Visit also
Staff Publications
Silk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, Greater Central Asia as A Component of U.S. Global Strategy, October 2024.
Analysis Laura Linderman, "Rising Stakes in Tbilisi as Elections Approach," Civil Georgia, September 7, 2024.
Analysis Mamuka Tsereteli, "U.S. Black Sea Strategy: The Georgian Connection", CEPA, February 9, 2024.
Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell, ed., Türkiye's Return to Central Asia and the Caucasus, July 2024.
Book Svante E. Cornell, ed., "The Changing Geopolitics of Central Asia and the Caucasus" AFPC Press/Armin LEar, 2023.
Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell and S. Frederick Starr, Stepping up to the “Agency Challenge”: Central Asian Diplomacy in a Time of Troubles, July 2023.
Silk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, U.S. Policy in Central Asia through Central Asian Eyes, May 2023.