By Bakhtiyor Naimov (2/22/2006 issue of the CACI Analyst)

BACKGROUND: Consolidation of power has become popular in Central Asia in the beginning of the new century, as all incumbents presidents after the collapse of the USSR finished their terms. President Rakhmonov is not the inventor but rather a follower of the rule of extension of terms. Tajikistan’s head of state, however, has one considerable advantage over his fellow Central Asian Presidents – the support of the general population as an advocate of peace in the country.

By Kevin Daniel Leahy (2/22/2006 issue of the CACI Analyst)

BACKGROUND: The parliamentary elections held in Chechnya late last year were dismissed in advance by numerous human rights organizations as little more than a specious exercise in quasi-democracy. Conversely, the Kremlin and its minions in Chechnya have been eager to portray the elections as a seminal part of ‘normalization’ - a process which both claim is well underway within the republic. However, it is widely believed that the chief purpose of the November 27 elections was to consolidate the political authority of the administration’s undoubted power broker, first deputy prime minister Ramzan Kadyrov.

By Stephen Blank (2/22/2006 issue of the CACI Analyst)

BACKGROUND: We should remember that the creation of a Russian-dominated gas cartel spanning all of Central Asia, and especially Turkmenistan, has been a major priority of the Putin regime since 2002. Russia aims to keep Central Asian energy in general and especially gas off the world market and confined to those pipelines which Russia controls so that Russia can divert that energy into cheaper Russian markets while reserving contracts at world prices for its customers. By doing so Gazprom preserves its monopoly, avoids high taxes based on low domestic profit margins, and dominates gas exports to Europe free from Central Asian competition while Russian consumers can keep relying on cheap subsidized energy and Central Asian gas regimes remain dependent on Russia.