BACKGROUND: During the fall of 2002, the American pressure on Iraq increased gradually to a point where the probability of a military campaign being launched only several hundred kilometers from the Caucasus is extremely high. As late January, with the report of UN inspectors on Iraq, appears increasingly to be the moment of truth regarding an invasion of Iraq, the Caucasian states are pondering how to relate to this development. Georgia and Azerbaijan already strongly aligned themselves with the U.S. in the war in Afghanistan. The question they are now debating is whether they should extend this support to the upcoming war in Iraq? Already in 1991, during Desert Storm, Azerbaijan\'s territory was used by the anti-Iraq coalition. Azerbaijan was part of the Soviet Union, which supported the action against Iraq, and its military transport aviation used Azerbaijan\'s airspace. Then as now, the strategic significance of control over South Caucasus to carry out effective policy in the Persian Gulf should not be underestimated. In the event of an Iraq operation, the antiterrorist coalition could use the air space and even the military infrastructure of Azerbaijan while implementing military operations against Iraq, as was the case with regard to the war in Afghanistan. Especially given Turkey\'s concerns over the extended presence of tens of thousands of American troops on Turkish territory whereas use of Turkish airspace is likely to pose much less of a problem, the issue arises whether the South Caucasus could form a backstage basing area. Already in December 2001,while commenting on the visit of U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld to the South Caucasus, the Azerbaijani press discussed the American determination to attack Iraq. Later, the Iraq theme was raised several times during the visit to Azerbaijan of the Commander of U.S. Forces in Europe, and the head of the United European Command of NATO Joseph Ralston in October 2002. The \"Azadlyg\" newspaper, quoting diplomatic sources, recently released the information that the U.S. offered Azerbaijan to join the anti-Iraq coalition. According to the report, U.S. ambassador to Azerbaijan Ross Wilson negotiated with the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Vilayat Guliyev. Besides, the ambassador met several times with president Heydar Aliyev recently. Azerbaijan\'s cooperation in the war on terrorism was again underlined in mid-November, as the Azerbaijani parliament approved the stationing of Azerbaijani military forces in Afghanistan and their participation in relevant operations under NATO command. A platoon of Azerbaijani military forces was sent to Afghanistan in late November, to operate as a part of the Turkish battalion in Afghanistan. The unit will serve at a checkpoint in Kabul and fulfill patrol functions. Since September 1999, an Azerbaijani platoon participates in the Turkish battalion in Kosovo. Azerbaijan was also one of the first countries in the region to support the U.S. by opening an air corridor and airports for the anti-Taliban coalition. Responding to Azerbaijan\'s decision to send a platoon to Afghanistan, Washington allocated an additional US$1 million in military aid to the Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan. Ambassador Wilson also praised Azerbaijan, and noted that NATO wants to deepen relations with the country. On the eve of the NATO summit in Prague, at the autumn session of NATO\'s Parliamentary assembly in Istanbul, Azerbaijan was accepted as an as associate Member of this body. IMPLICATIONS: In Baku, the belief is growing that this western, especially American support is not accidental, but that NATO will very likely seek to quarter military forces in countries striving to join the alliance, without signing any large interstate agreements. Azerbaijan\'s infrastructure, including several airbases from Soviet days, could be useful for NATO from a military perspective. Western diplomatic missions in Baku refused to give any comments regarding Azerbaijan\'s participation in the anti-Iraq coalition. But U.S. Ambassador Wilson did not rule out the possibility. He did note that given Azerbaijan\'s geographic location, the need is not obvious, but expressed hope that friends and partners would find ways to support the United States. Local experts see Azerbaijan\'s role less as a military necessity than a political one. Rasim Musabekov, for example, noted that America may be mostly interested, at this stage, in Azerbaijan in order to display it is a Muslim country supporting the U.S. in its struggle with Saddam Hussein\'s regime. Former presidential advisor Vafa Guluzade noted that the U.S. can use Kuwait, Qatar and Turkey as forward bases, and that if the U.S. would need an air corridor through Azerbaijan, then they already have it. However, he did foresee the possibility of Azerbaijan\'s participation in peacekeeping forces in Iraq after a war, following the pattern set out in Kosovo and Afghanistan. Only marginal forces in Azerbaijan, close to Russia and Iran, are categorically against participation in an anti-Iraq coalition. The social democratic party, for example, argues that America in every way tries to aggravate the situation in Iraq, and initiate military conflict. They want Azerbaijan to be a neutral country, not being member of any coalition or a base for the realization of any state\'s political aims. They are also against Azerbaijan entering NATO. CONCLUSION: Azerbaijan risks bringing anger upon itself from radical Arab regimes if it joins an anti-Iraq war. But more importantly, is risks alienating Iran, which fears that it may be next in line for America\'s war against what President Bush termed the \"Axis of Evil\". Iran may hence see the stationing of American forces in Azerbaijan for the war in Iraq as a mere prelude to similar operations against Iran, which Azerbaijan directly borders. Besides, Moscow is unlikely to be delighted with stronger U.S. positions in the South Caucasus. On the other hand, participation would give Azerbaijan the opportunity to increase its military-to-military cooperation with the U.S., Turkey, and other members of NATO. Joining the anti-Iraq coalition should be seen as cooperation with the U.S. in the struggle against international terrorism and for stability in the Middle East and the world. Azerbaijan is a secular state, whose foreign policies are formulated to protect the national interests of the country. If the U.S. invites Azerbaijan to join the anti-Iraq coalition, it is an opportunity for Baku to continue its integration with North Atlantic institutions. AUTHOR\'S BIO: Gulnara Ismailova graduated from Institute of Political Science and Social Management in Azerbaijan. She is freelance journalist, based Baku, Azerbaijan.