BACKGROUND: It is highly symbolic that the Georgian presidential elections took place on April 9. The date April 9 has come to symbolize the Georgian nationalist movement. On April 9, 1989, right in front of the Supreme Soviet of the Georgian Soviet Socialist Republic, a special task force of the Red Army brutally suppressed a peaceful hunger strike using poisonous gas and spades. Hunger strikers had demanded Georgian succession from the Soviet Union and a declaration of independence. The crackdown left 21 people dead. When the 70-year Communist rule in Georgia ended, the newly elected Georgian parliament declared independence on April 9, 1991. Just after the April 1989 crackdown, then USSR foreign minister, Eduard Shevardnadze arrived in Tbilisi in an attempt to calm the situation leading the then first secretary of the Central Committee of the Georgian Communist Party, Djumber Patiashvili, to resign from office. .Patiashvili succeeded Shevardnadze as the Georgia’s first secretary after Shevardnadze became foreign minister of the Soviet Union and has been Shevardnadze’s bitter rival since beginning of their party careers.

In the Georgian presidential election, the same political figures, Eduard Shevardnadze and Djumber Patiashvili, confronted one another on the eleven year anniversary of the bloody crackdown of 1989. Shevardnadze is associated with the overthrow of the first national government and the 1991-92 civil war, the conflict in Abkhazia, a 10-year economic crisis and social hardships. His supporters credit him with stability, progress in relations with the West and Georgia's participation in international oil and transport projects. Patiashvili, however, remains tarnished by the April 9, 1989 bloodshed. Since he has never ruled the country in post-Soviet time, Patiashvili's campaign is mainly focused on criticism of Shevardnadze's policies. Most Georgians accept the irony that that former Communist leaders are still contesting for the presidency 10 years into the post-Communist era.

Very few Georgians can recall the wise words of Algirdas Brasauskas, the former first secretary of the Lithuanian Communist Party and president of Lithuania. Brasauskas refused to run in Lituania’s 1998 presidential elections stating that "a former first secretary of the Central Committee should not lead Lithuania in the next century". Patiashvili ran for the first time against Shevardnadze in 1995. Patiashvili came in second in the race, receiving votes from people who felt nostalgia for Communism. In the present election however, Patiashvili relies on the so-called "Batumi alliance", a bloc of opposition parties that rallies around Aslan Abashidze, the Adjarian leader, and his party "Revival of Georgia". In the October 31, 1999 parliamentary elections the Batumi alliance won 29% of the vote, second only to the Shevardnadze-led Citizen's Union of Georgia that received 41%. With his strong showing, Patiashvili gained a parliamentary seat and became the leader of the parliamentary minority.

IMPLICATIONS: Shevardnadze’s reelection was a foregone conclusion and not without the help of foreign friends. The presidents of Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Armenia, as well as the German chancellor have voiced support for Eduard Shevardnadze, all visiting Tbilisi late in March. The Georgian population has long considered Ukraine and Azerbaijan as the country's partners in East-West transport and in oil projects. During his visit to Tbilisi, the Armenian president focused discussions on security problems in the Caucasus. Gerhard Shroeder announced Germany' s decision to grant DM 60 million to Georgia, an apparent sign of western support for Shevardnadze's policies. The next presidential election in 2005 will be up for grabs. Shevardnadze will be compelled under the constitution to give up his presidency as one cannot serve as president more than two successive terms and almost all of Shevardnadze’s opponents will retire from active political life.

Therefore, the question of which candidate would carry the day on April 9 was not considered important to most Georgians. The Georgian people are much more concerned with another question: who will be the president of post-Shevardnadze Georgia. This question is quite urgent. One likely candidate, Zurab Zhvania, the chairman of the 1995-99 and 1999-2003 parliament and the head of Shevardnadze' s election campaign is famous for his statement to the Council of Europe: " I am Georgian and therefore I am European". Shevardnadze's protégé, state minister and the head of the president' s chancellery,Vazha Lortkipanidze, who is a former Komsomol leader and former Georgian ambassador to Russia, also has good chances. At present, both are Shevardnadze's most faithful adherents and leaders of the Citizen’s Union of Georgia party.

The presidential elections will most likely put an end to Djumber Patiashvili's future as a politician and his role as Shevardnadze' s main political opponent. Although Patiashvili has the loyalty of the pro-Russian Aslan Abashidze and the other members of the "Batumi alliance" Shevardnadze subverted Patiashvili’s power base by visiting Batumi early in March for talks with Abashidze on the problems of relations between Tbilisi and the Batumi region. He promised Abashidze that the parliament would amend the constitution to define Adjaria’s status. The current constitution put aside Adjaria’s former autonomous status during Soviet times, along with that of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, until Georgia achieved a "restoration of territorial integrity". Aslan Abashidze' s future is relatively hard to predict since he holds quite an important position as a regional leader. His rather moderate election campaign suggests that Abashidze is getting ready for the 2005 presidential elections.

CONCLUSION: In the 1995 presidential elections, Shevardnadze benefited from Abashidze's support and Adjarian votes. In exchange, the Revival of Georgia was the only party to win the September 1996 elections to the Supreme Council of Adjaria. Abashidze took full control of the region and established a totalitarian regime in Adjaria. Arguably, his sole goal is to retain power in Adjaria. This goal seems much more important for him than the presidency. Analysts speculate he ran a moderate campaign in exchange for Adjaria becoming the "Autonomous Republic of Adjaria" and written in the constitution this April. Abashidze has refused to visit Tbilisi for the past seven years claiming personal security. Prior to the last parliamentary elections many Russian generals visited Batumi which is home to one of the Russia’s military bases.

It is hard to foresee if in the next five-year presidency Shevardnadze will actually share power with Abashidze’s "Batumi alliance", cooperation that could bolster Abashidze’s chances to become president in 2005. Will Shevardnadze be able to narrow the divide that plagues the entire Central Asia-Caucasus region-- between the capital, in this case Tiblisi, and the other regions of the country on the capital’s periphery? Will he ensure that major businesses are cut off from government favoritism? Will corruption be defeated and stable democratic institutions established? Georgia can only move in one of two directions. It will either wind up in a Brezhnev-era stagnation with a deep social and economic crisis, or it will embrace dynamic reforms and closer integration with the West. The Georgian people have chosen Shevardnadze. Shevardnadze' s choice remains to be seen.

AUTHOR BIO:  Dr. Zurab Tchiaberashvili is the Head of the Civil Education Department at the National Library of Georgian Parliament in Tbilisi and the Media Program Coordinator at the Caucasian Institute for Peace, Development and Democracy.  He received his Ph.D. in the History of Philosophy from the Georgian Academy of Science.

HOME

Copyright 2000 The Analyst All rights reserved