BACKGROUND: Following the initial democratic idealism of the early Gorbachev era, Nagorno Karabagh held a national referendum in December 1991, overwhelming affirming its independence from Azerbaijan.  The current parliament was elected in April 1995 to replace its Soviet-era predecessor.  Current Armenian President Robert Kocharian's original power base was here in Karabagh, having been elected as temporary president in December 1994 and reelected to a five year term in November 1996. 

The course of democracy in this small enclave continued with elections in September 1997, which brought then-Foreign Minister Arkady Gukasyan to the presidency as Kocharian became Armenia's prime minister. Ironically, the democratic credentials of Nagorno Karabagh, a self-declared republic recognized by no one, are now stronger than those of Azerbaijan, a state with consistent electoral failings and systemic political shortcomings.  The issue of democratization in the region is no longer an "internal issue" but an essential element in the effective resolution of the Karabagh conflict. 

The democratic credentials of Karabagh, despite Azerbaijani protest, only strengthen the need for the inclusion of the Karabagh leadership in the international mediation effort as an equal partner, a full and formal partner in the talks with Azerbaijan, recognizing the reality that it is Karabagh, and not Armenia, that is the party to the conflict.  The inclusion of the democratically elected Karabagh government also offers a political legitimacy so vital to selling the terms of any peace deal to the conflict's combatants.

IMPLICATIONS: The dismissal of the Azerbaijani foreign minister and the attack on the Armenian parliament and subsequent killings of many senior Armenian political figures last October posed serious obstacles to the peace process underway by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), and supplemented by a series of direct talks between the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents, seeking a resolution to the Nagorno Karabagh conflict. 

A second, and potentially more destabilizing, obstacle arose in recent months culminating in the attempted assassination of Karabagh President Arkady Gukasyan in March.   The failed assassination followed an escalating confrontation between Gukasyan and his former Defense Minister, Samvel Babayan.  Still recovering from the attempt, the president represents a new and unique figure for this region: a political leader legitimized by democratic elections with an ambitious agenda of combating corruption and controlling the power of the military. 

It is this agenda of minimizing the role of the military and dismissing the threat of a "politics in uniform" that has brought the president's confrontation with the former defense minister to such a near-fatal outcome.  In this light, these parliamentary elections will determine if the wounded president will be able to finally overcome the internal challenge posed by the hard-line military elements against a negotiated peace with Azerbaijan.

CONCLUSION: The real test, however, lies in the post-settlement stage, centering on the need to conclude a peace treaty within a permanent and enforceable framework.  And the key to securing a durable resolution to the Karabagh conflict rests in the viability of democratization of the signatories.  The contrast between the aging and dictatorial regime of Azerbaijan and the youthful and democratic government of Nagorno Karabagh mandates a determined effort to bridge the political divide by the international community. 

Such a policy could be based on a reward of shares in the region's petroleum profits, effectively transforming the "Great Game" into the "Great Gain." With the conclusion of yet another democratic election, the Karabagh leadership will be able to offer the most promise for securing the peace and welcoming a new opportunity for achieving integration over disintegration in the region.

AUTHOR BIO:  Richard Giragosian is a professional staff member with the Joint Economic Committee, U.S. Congress specializing in international relations and economics in the FSU and China.  He is the author of the monthly newsletter, "TransCaucasus:  A Chronology," featured on the Soros Foundation website.

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