BACKGROUND: On June 22-23, the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) held its summit in Minsk. Russia’s President Vladimir Putin transferred the chairmanship of the Council to Alexander Lukashenka of Belarus. In addition, Uzbekistan officially re-joined the club that it had left in 1999, increasing the number of member states to seven. Other members include Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan. The CSTO was founded on the basis of the Treaty on Collective Security (TCS) signed in Tashkent in May 1992. Under Russian leadership, the member states established the CSTO in September 2003. It was in part to address the eastward expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and in part an attempt to counter increased American presence in Afghanistan and Central Asia. After September 11, 2001, Moscow felt the need for transforming the TCS into an organization that could provide collective defense capabilities and allow the creation and use of mainly Russian military bases and rapid deployment forces in anti-terrorist operations in Central Asia. Thus, the CSTO has many similarities, at least on paper, with NATO. For example, Article 4 of TCS reads, “In case an act of aggression is committed against any of the member-states, all other member-states will render it necessary assistance, including military one, as well as provide support with the means at their disposal through an exercise of the right to collective defense in accordance with Article 51 of the UN Charter.” Another forum, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) comprised of China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan gathered in Shanghai on June 15. India, Iran, Pakistan, and Mongolia participated as observers, while Afghanistan was invited as a guest country. The “Shanghai Five,” the original name of the organization, started as a platform for discussions and resolutions of border disputes among the five neighboring states - China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan - in 1996. It then embraced Uzbekistan as a new member and expanded its agenda to areas of economic, political and military cooperation. The organization adopted common policies on fighting ethnic separatism, religious extremism and even established an anti-terrorism center in Bishkek in 1999. In August 2003, the five members – in Uzbekistan’s absence – launched their first joint anti-terrorist exercise. Since the U.S. military operation in Afghanistan, the priorities of the SCO member states have shifted. Initially, the SCO was a perfect forum which China used for institutionalizing its relations with Russia and the Central Asian republics. Since then, however, the SCO has shown signs of becoming a Sino-Russian military and political bloc through which both Beijing and Moscow hope to counter the increased U.S. presence in the region. The SCO could potentially expand and offer membership to observer states, including India, Pakistan and Iran. The third group of countries in the region consists of Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Moldova, or the GUAM group, which also included in-and-out member Uzbekistan between 1999 and 2004. GUAM was established in 1996 “as a political, economic and strategic alliance designed to strengthen the independence and sovereignty of these former Soviet Union republics.” Since the beginning GUAM was seen as an anti-Russian alliance that aimed to curb Russia’s influence in the “near abroad.” Yet, for a long time, the alliance remained idle. It was revived again in the wake of the two color revolutions that took place in Georgia and Ukraine. On May 23, 2006, the heads of GUAM states gathered in Kyiv to discuss the future of the organization. At the end of the summit, the alliance was transformed into a new forum, the Organization for Democracy and Economic Development – GUAM. Some of the priorities of the revised GUAM included building democratic societies with the rule of law and respect for human rights, combating international terrorism, separatism, and transnational organized crime, and deepening European integration processes.

IMPLICATIONS: The recent summits of GUAM, CSTO and SCO member states reveal new challenges that these organizations are facing today. The renaming of GUAM was an attempt to revive this organization, which is likely to focus on regional issues such as democratic reforms, the struggle against separatism and most importantly energy security. Thanks to oil and natural gas from Azerbaijan, the organization now promotes itself as a regional club that could play an important role in Europe’s energy diversification strategy. GUAM also provides a stepping stone for Azerbaijan, Georgia and Ukraine, who hope to upgrade their affiliation with NATO by becoming members of NATO’s Membership Action Plan. The accession of these states to NATO, however, is unlikely in the short term. Kyiv still struggles with internal political problems, while Baku and Tbilisi are yet to restore their territorial integrity and resolve the separatist conflicts in the South Caucasus. As NATO slowly continues expanding eastward, the CSTO is likely to strengthen its collective defense capabilities. These initiatives are led by Moscow, which will remain the dominant player in the organization. While being anti-NATO, it will continue to offer alternative security and military guarantees to states that have had problems with the United States (i.e. Uzbekistan after the Andijan events). Further transformation of the CSTO will depend on NATO’s enlargement strategy. The organization with most promise presently seems to be the SCO. Sooner or later, the SCO will open its doors to other regional powers, though Russia and China will remain the leading players. Pakistan, India and Iran could become full-fledged members of the SCO. So long as, the interests of Moscow and Beijing do not diverge radically, the SCO will continue to counter the increased American presence in the region, while Moscow keeps the CSTO as a backup solely controlled by itself.

CONCLUSIONS: As a result of growing American and European interest in the Caspian energy resources, the GUAM member states, which are energy producing and transit countries, have found a new objective that could be facilitated by the United States and the European Union. These states will continue to cooperate among each other, but also with European states in various areas, including energy security. Moreover, GUAM stands out by being a free union of independent republics, not dominated by any one regional power. While the military and security cooperation among the CSTO members will grow as NATO expands eastward, it will remain an organization controlled by Moscow. Russia will try to woo the CSTO member states in attempt to limit the rising influence of the United States in the Caucasus and Central Asia. Likewise, Moscow and Beijing will try to transform the SCO, by inviting new members, into a strong regional forum that could eventually assume the leadership in the economic, political and security affairs of the region. All regional forums in Eurasia will continue to be used as an instrument for balancing and counterbalancing geopolitical influences of great powers in the region.

AUTHOR’S BIO: Taleh Ziyadov is an independent analyst specializing in energy, security and geopolitical issues in Eurasia.