THE ROGUN CONTROVERSY: DECODING CENTRAL ASIA’S WATER PUZZLES
By Roman Muzalevsky (3/3/2010 issue of the CACI Analyst)
The ongoing polemic between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan over the latter’s decision to construct the Rogun hydropower station has intensified, threatening to escalate amidst regional environmental challenges, widespread poverty, border disputes, and lack of inter-state cooperation, especially on water management issues. This context creates a potentially explosive environment in Central Asia that has witnessed a number of ethnic and resource-related conflicts in the past, primarily in the Fergana Valley, requiring effective intra and extra-regional policy responses to avoid water wars that are to some extent already under way across the region.
BACKGROUND: The regional water (mis)management in Central Asia resembles a vicious circle.
NEW STRATEGIC REALTIES IN THE BLACK SEA/CASPIAN REGION
By Mamuka Tsereteli (2/17/2010 issue of the CACI Analyst)
The recent developments in the Black Sea/Caspian region indicate a dramatic shift in the geopolitical environment of the region. The reduced strategic ties between regional actors; diminishing U.S.
RECONCILING WITH THE TALIBAN: OPPORTUNITIES AND PITFALLS
By Richard Weitz (2/17/2010 issue of the CACI Analyst)
The main topic of discussion at the January 28 London conference on Afghanistan was the renewed coalition support for the Afghan government’s reintegration and reconciliation initiatives. With varying degrees of enthusiasm, the United States, the United Kingdom, and other members of the international coalition endorsed Afghan President Hamid Karzai’s call for national reconciliation. Seeking to weaken the Taliban insurgents by dividing the group’s less committed members from its hard-core supporters makes tactical sense, but the initiatives entail serious risks that must be understood and reduced.
UKRAINIAN ELECTIONS COMPLICATE SOUTHERN ENERGY CORRIDOR
By Robert M. Cutler (2/17/2010 issue of the CACI Analyst)
Viktor Yanukovych came first in the presidential elections in Ukraine, but Yuliya Tymoshenko has instructed lawyers to bring to the courts evidence of voting irregularities to put Yanukovych’s margin of victory under question. Even if the latter is able to muster a negative majority to oust her from office and form his own parliamentary majority, he may be forced to call new parliamentary elections. Nevertheless, he has already moved on the energy front through floating new proposals, if not yet able to offer them formally for legislative consideration.
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Staff Publications
Silk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, Greater Central Asia as A Component of U.S. Global Strategy, October 2024.
Analysis Laura Linderman, "Rising Stakes in Tbilisi as Elections Approach," Civil Georgia, September 7, 2024.
Analysis Mamuka Tsereteli, "U.S. Black Sea Strategy: The Georgian Connection", CEPA, February 9, 2024.
Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell, ed., Türkiye's Return to Central Asia and the Caucasus, July 2024.
Book Svante E. Cornell, ed., "The Changing Geopolitics of Central Asia and the Caucasus" AFPC Press/Armin LEar, 2023.
Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell and S. Frederick Starr, Stepping up to the “Agency Challenge”: Central Asian Diplomacy in a Time of Troubles, July 2023.
Silk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, U.S. Policy in Central Asia through Central Asian Eyes, May 2023.