IMPLICATIONS: Meanwhile Iran is relying on a combination of military and political means to keep Washington out of the Caspian. Agreement with Russia on this rapid reaction force is one policy line and the agreement with Azerbaijan is a second line. A third line is Iran’s recent call for a convention of confidence-building and stability measures for all the littoral states of the Caspian. That proposal is clearly intended to generate a consensus on excluding any non-littoral state, i.e. America from a regional or maritime presence in the Caspian. Militarily Iran is not only continuing its nuclear program and an expanded missile and conventional rearmament program, it is expressly putting its priorities into naval, air, and air defense capabilities to deter an expected American threat. Of particular significance here are the newly announce Ghaidr class midget submarines which will be used to defend both the Persian Gulf coast and Iran’s Caspian coast. These submarines possess the capability to transport troops from place to place and will also be equipped with capability for firing torpedoes and rockets of undisclosed caliber. We can also expect more deals with China and Russia for conventional weapons, if not also more clandestinely with North Korea. All this activity therefore points to a strategic decision to try and obtain a naval base on the Caspian coast and find lasting ways to keep Washington from the area. The tumultuous events in Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Ukraine have overshadowed the deepening strategic rivalries among the major players over the Caspian zone and given them an ideological cast. But this process of sharpened rivalry is leading to a stage of heightened militarization as rival security blocs come into being. On June 2, the Russian, Indian, and Chinese Foreign Ministers meet in Vladivostok and undoubtedly Moscow and Beijing seek to revive Evgeny Primakov’s 1998 proposal for a strategic triangle against American influence in Asia and globally, not least Central Asia. Similarly Russia proposes this rapid reaction force even as it is being compelled to leave its bases in Georgia and Iran has embraced that proposal while building up its own forces. America too, as we see is actively supporting the local states’ capability to defend themselves against all manner of threats.
CONCLUSIONS: Iran’s combined military-diplomatic reaction presents a dangerous potential in this game because it has previously used its regional conventional capabilities to threaten Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan over energy issues in the Caspian Sea. At the same time Iran’s capabilities to generate new terrorist threats cannot be dismissed. It possesses links with Al-Qaida and the most recent reports indicate that it is trying to strengthen Syrian resistance to the United States in Lebanon and incite Palestinian violence to disrupt the peace process with Israel. The incitement of subversive and even terrorist activities in the Caucasus and Central Asia is hardly beyond the imagination or capability of the government in Iran should it deem such activities necessary. And all these considerations do not even take into account the fact that within two years Iran is expected to have a usable nuclear weapon. Its stonewalling attitude at current negotiations with the EU and its systematic twenty-year deception of the IAEA and violation of the NPT can hardly inspire confidence about its intentions in Central Asia, the Caucasus, or the Middle East. As tension ratchets up between it and Washington, and possibly the EU, it is clear that the Caspian will be one of the political and diplomatic battlegrounds of this struggle. But now events are transpiring in such a way as to make the possibility of these areas becoming a military battleground as well.
AUTHOR’S BIO Professor Stephen Blank, Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, Carlisle Barracks, PA 17013. The views expressed here do not represent those of the U.S. Army, Defense Department or the U.S. Government.