THE ROGOZHIN APPOINTMENT: A SIGN OF CONFRONTATION OR COLLABORATION?
By Dmitry Shlapentokh (2/21/2008 issue of the CACI Analyst)
Dmitry Rogozhin, one of the most well-known Russian nationalists, was recently appointed Russia’s representative to NATO, a move understood in the West as an unfriendly act toward both NATO and the West in general. Rogozhin’s statement to Russia’s movement against illegal immigration before his departure, and his clear affiliation with the movement, indicate the attitude toward the West of at least a good segment of the Russian elite. It shows that the elite is clearly disappointed with the West’s approach to Russia.
ARMENIAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS DECIDED BY THE PAST?
By Blanka Hancilova and Olga Azatyan (2/6/2008 issue of the CACI Analyst)
In fall 2007, Armenia’s first post-Soviet president, Levon Ter-Petrosyan, entered the presidential race, upsetting a seemingly idyllic transfer of power from Robert Kocharyan to his long-time ally, Prime Minister Serzh Sargsyan. Although the campaign proved livelier than expected, Ter-Petrosyan has failed to consolidate the opposition and is unlikely to succeed in his challenge.
KAZAKHSTAN THREATENS OIL EXPORT DUTY FOLLOWING KASHAGAN SETTLEMENT
By Robert M. Cutler (2/6/2008 issue of the CACI Analyst)
Robert M. Cutler
Two weeks after successful renegotiation of Kazakhstan's participation in the Kashagan offshore project, the country's energy minister stated on January 29 that Kazakhstan may impose a duty on nearly half of all exports of crude and oil products beginning in 2009. The Italian company Eni will cease to be operator of the Kashagan consortium, but the Kazakhstan state company KazMunaiGaz will not gain that status, which it coveted.
A MEDVEDEV PRESIDENCY: IMPLICATIONS FOR CHECHEN-RUSSIAN RELATIONS AND RAMZAN KADYROV
By Kevin Daniel Leahy (2/6/2008 issue of the CACI Analyst)
It was never a secret that Ramzan Kadyrov, Chechnya’s pro-Moscow president, wanted his most powerful political benefactor, Vladimir Putin, to retain the Russian presidency for at least another four years. Nevertheless, Kadyrov seems quite at ease with Putin’s chosen successor, current First Deputy Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev. Why is Kadyrov so comfortable with Medvedev’s candidature? How do the two men regard one another? What implications will Medvedev’s expected inauguration hold for future relations between Moscow and Grozny? Â
BACKGROUND: In fact, there is no way of knowing for certain how Dmitri Medvedev regards the situation in Chechnya as it presently stands.
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