by Huseyn Aliyev (the 02/20/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)
The escalation of insurgency-related violence in Dagestan, in conjunction with the authorities’ inability to deal with the increase in militant attacks, led the Dagestani government to establish in 2010 a commission aimed at rehabilitating rebel fighters. Yet, despite scores of processed applications and a number of successful cases claimed by the commission, conflict-related violence continues to increase in Dagestan. Created by the government of Dagestan as the first effort to implement a “soft” form of counter-insurgency, the rehabilitation commission nevertheless lacks legal and social mechanisms to ensure fair treatment of former militants and to re-settle them in civilian life.
PAKISTAN AND AFGHANISTAN BEYOND 2014
by Rizwan Zeb (the 02/06/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)
Pakistan understands and realizes that a stable Afghanistan is key to its own stability. A number of issues are of crucial importance for the improvement of Pakistan-Afghanistan relations: the Durand line, the return of Afghan refugees, the Indian presence in Afghanistan, and the implementation of various pipeline projects transporting Central Asian oil and gas through Gwadar. Above all, Pakistan wants a stable and friendly Afghanistan which does not pose a threat or allow any other state to use its territory against Pakistan. After 2014, will Pakistan and Afghanistan develop a neighborly relationship or will Afghanistan become another theatre for India-Pakistan rivalry?
PAKISTAN HANDS OVER DEVELOPMENT OF GWADAR PORT TO CHINA
by Naveed Ahmad (02/06/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)
Pakistan has handed over the management of its southeastern Gwadar deep-sea port to the China Overseas Port Holdings after failing to turn the strategically located port into a financial success. With an outpost on the entry to the risk-prone Strait of Hormuz, China not only secures its petroleum supply through the shortest land route but also mounts a challenge to the U.S. and India in the Arabian Sea. Pakistan’s reliance on China as a partner has increased significantly during its post-9/11 engagement with the U.S. While Islamabad seems relieved by its belated act, Beijing seems to shift some pressure it has been withstanding in South China Sea.
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GAKAYEV BROTHERS KILLED IN CHECHNYA
by Emil Souleimanov (the 02/06/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)
Since January 17, a special operation has been underway in the wooded mountains of Chechnya’s Shatoy and Vedeno districts. Following a week of intense fighting, the infamous Gakayev brothers, in command of the Southeast Chechen wing of the Caucasus Emirate, were killed, along with around eleven members of their group including emir Abuyezid Jabrailov. The recent success of the kadyrovtsy units is likely to considerably weaken the Chechen sector of the North Caucasus insurgency, even though it is still premature to anticipate the end of hostilities in this war-torn region of Russia.
The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst is a biweekly publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, a Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center affiliated with the American Foreign Policy Council, Washington DC., and the Institute for Security and Development Policy, Stockholm. For 15 years, the Analyst has brought cutting edge analysis of the region geared toward a practitioner audience.
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