NATO in Afghanistan – Paralysis as Policy?
By Richard Weitz (the 30/10/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)
NATO’s inability to commit to a definite role in Afghanistan beyond 2014, along with perceived strategic setbacks in Central Asia and the South Caucasus, are reinforcing the narrative promoted by the Taliban, al-Qaeda, Iran, and to a lesser extent Russia and China, that a war-weary West is abandoning Eurasia. Urgent measures are needed during the next months to reverse this perception before it gains irreversible momentum. The perception is already leading regional players to hedge against the expected consequences of a diminished NATO role. NATO needs to reaffirm and clarify its commitment to Afghanistan and Eurasia.
Kyrgyzstan's Parliament Pushes Government for More Shares in Kumtor Mine
By Jamil Payaz (the 30/10/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)
On October 25, 2013, the Prosecutor General's Office pressed charges against the former Ministers of Ecology and Finance and a former Vice Prime Minister, who is now a parliamentarian, accusing them of corruption when signing the Kumtor agreement in 2003. As the parliament has rejected the tentative deal envisaging a 50-50 joint venture, uncompromisingly demanding at least a 67 percent stake in the Kumtor gold mine, the country's largest foreign currency earner, the Prosecutor General is working hard to substantiate the parliament's claims that major restructuring deals with TSX-listed Centerra was soaked with corruption.
Ignoring All the Problems Involved, Kadyrov's Chechnya Bets on Tourism
By Tomas Šmíd (the 30/10/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)
Chechnya’s economy has been struggling with long-term problems, which have had a significant and visible impact on standards of living in the republic. Post-war reconstruction of the economy is far from accomplished and development is still hindered by an enormous level of unemployment. This provides a ground for both emigration and open sympathies with the opposition, which is currently represented by the radical Islamist wing alone. The Chechen government itself endeavors to spur some sectors of the economy, e.g. the tourist industry; however any major progress can hardly be expected without the implementation of significant political-economic reforms, and above all, an improvement of civic freedoms.
A Chinese Marshall Plan for Central Asia?
By Temuri Yakobashvili (the 16/10/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)
Twenty years after establishing diplomatic relations with the Central Asia states, China’s economic engagement in the region has expanded to billions of dollars in investments, loans, and energy sales. President Xi Jinping’s September tour concluded with extended aid sums reminiscent of the Marshall Plan. Agreements focused on the fields of energy, trade and finance, and infrastructure, cementing China’s role as Central Asia’s primary economic benefactor. China continues to outpace Russia in both bilateral trade and foreign direct investment measures, though President Xi Jinping is careful not to challenge Russian political primacy in the region. China’s contributions to Central Asia should not discourage the West from participating in regional integration projects and enjoying the rewards.
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Staff Publications
Silk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, Greater Central Asia as A Component of U.S. Global Strategy, October 2024.
Analysis Laura Linderman, "Rising Stakes in Tbilisi as Elections Approach," Civil Georgia, September 7, 2024.
Analysis Mamuka Tsereteli, "U.S. Black Sea Strategy: The Georgian Connection", CEPA, February 9, 2024.
Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell, ed., Türkiye's Return to Central Asia and the Caucasus, July 2024.
Book Svante E. Cornell, ed., "The Changing Geopolitics of Central Asia and the Caucasus" AFPC Press/Armin LEar, 2023.
Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell and S. Frederick Starr, Stepping up to the “Agency Challenge”: Central Asian Diplomacy in a Time of Troubles, July 2023.
Silk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, U.S. Policy in Central Asia through Central Asian Eyes, May 2023.