Russia Ramps up Pressure on Tajikistan
By Dmitry Shlapentokh (the 04/09/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)
Tajikistan, one of the most impoverished states of Central Asia, has a tense relationship with neighboring Uzbekistan and faces a potential threat from Islamist radicals from Afghanistan, a threat that will most likely increase after the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2014. Tajikistan’s President Emomali Rakhmon has been on an endless search for geopolitical partnerships. While China, the U.S. and Iran are all seen as potential partners, Russia remains Tajikistan’s principal patron. Yet, Dushanbe’s own demands for bilateral security arrangements have antagonized Moscow, which is increasingly threatening to deport Tajik migrant workers as a means for influencing Dushanbe’s policies.
Kazakhstan Plans to Rewrite Its Innovation Strategy by Hosting EXPO-2017: Will It Work?
By Rafis Abazov and Arystanbek Mukhamediuly (the 04/09/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)
Kazakhstan plans to host World EXPO under the theme “Energy of the Future” in 2017 as part of its ambitious Innovation Strategy, designed to develop skill-intensive sectors and to promote innovative businesses, especially in the alternative energy sector. In preparation for the event, the Kazakh government plans to spend between US$ 3 and 5 billion on alternative energy development and infrastructure, respectively. Opinions in the country are deeply divided. Some believe that this is an excellent opportunity to promote targeted industries and small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in the alternative energy sector. Others are very skeptical, considering it likely to become another white elephant with little impact on Kazakhstan’s national economy.
Kazakhstan's Counter-Terrorism Strategies for The Post-2013 Security Environment
By Jacob Zenn (the 04/09/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)
Since the first terrorist attacks struck Kazakhstan in 2011, the country has reformed its counter-terrorism strategy to confront emerging threats. Kazakhstan learned that more intelligence and understanding of extremists could have prevented the attacks. The country also saw that counter-radicalization programs are necessary to counter Salafism, which is anathema to the country’s religious traditions and can serve as a gateway to jihadism. In the near future, Kazakhstan will also focus on regional counter-terrorism cooperation to limit the fallout of wars abroad on the home front.
Tajikistan's Private Sector Loses Its Leader and Coordinating Council
By Oleg Salimov (the 04/09/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)
The upcoming presidential elections in Tajikistan this fall will be a determinant of political developments in the country in coming years. There is little doubt that the current president Emomali Rakhmon will seize the opportunity to stay in power for a fourth presidential term secured by a 2003 referendum. While there has been no formal statement on whether Rakhmon will run again, his political opponents have recently experienced increased pressure, implying that Rakhmon is preparing the ground for a head start. The arrest of Zaid Saidov, a businessman and leader of the newly founded political party New Tajikistan, demonstrates the precautions taken by the Tajik government ahead of the presidential elections.
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Staff Publications
Silk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, U.S. Policy in Central Asia through Central Asian Eyes, May 2023.
Analysis Svante E. Cornell, "Promise and Peril in the Caucasus," AFPC Insights, March 30, 2023.
Oped S. Frederick Starr, Putin's War In Ukraine and the Crimean War), 19fourtyfive, January 2, 2023
Oped S. Frederick Starr, Russia Needs Its Own Charles de Gaulle, Foreign Policy, July 21, 2022.
Silk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, Rethinking Greater Central Asia: American and Western Stakes in the Region and How to Advance Them, June 2022
Oped Svante E. Cornell & Albert Barro, With referendum, Kazakh President pushes for reforms, Euractiv, June 3, 2022.
Oped Svante E. Cornell Russia's Southern Neighbors Take a Stand, The Hill, May 6, 2022.
Silk Road Paper Johan Engvall, Between Bandits and Bureaucrats: 30 Years of Parliamentary Development in Kyrgyzstan, January 2022.
Oped Svante E. Cornell, No, The War in Ukraine is not about NATO, The Hill, March 9, 2022.
Analysis Svante E. Cornell, Kazakhstan’s Crisis Calls for a Central Asia Policy Reboot, The National Interest, January 34, 2022.
Book S. Frederick Starr and Svante E. Cornell, Strong and Unique: Three Decades of U.S.-Kazakhstan Partnership, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, December 2021.
Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell, S. Frederick Starr & Albert Barro, Political and Economic Reforms in Kazakhstan Under President Tokayev, November 2021.