BACKGROUND: The U.S. war against the Taliban and Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan needed launching pads for air force, and supply bases in neighboring countries. One of the bases set up to conduct operation Enduring Freedom, was at Manas airport. The U.S.-led base was later renamed after New York firefighter Peter Ganci, who perished in the collapsed WTC towers. As some analysts predicted, U.S. bases in Central Asia revived geopolitical competition in the region. As a result, in October 2003, Russia opened an air base of its own in Kant, just 20 miles from the Ganci base. The same year, China held maneuvers with Kyrgyz troops for the first time ever in the border area near the Xinjang Uighur Autonomous Region. Furthermore, Kyrgyzstan, as a member of the Collective Security Treaty under the Moscow’s patronage and of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization under both Russian and Chinese wings, is to a certain extent limited in its foreign policy formulation. The domestic political situation is characterized by a high degree of volatility, susceptible to the quick ignition of regional conflicts, as the Aksy events of March 2002 indicated. Frictions exist also along regional and interethnic lines: between the russified North and the more traditional South, as well as between Kyrgyz and other ethnic minorities in the country. The surrounding regional reality for Kyrgyzstan is even more grim, if one bears in mind recent border clashes between local residents in the Kyrgyz-Tajik border region, the war of words with neighboring Kazakhstan over the flooding in southern Kazakhstani region of Kyzyl-Orda. The dynamic involvement of foreign powers in Kyrgyzstan during the last 2 years has already produced a situation where Kyrgyz authorities have increasingly little control over foreign policy, and now, even over internal politics. The country’s relations with neighboring countries is now becoming a victim of foreign involvement and of the “new great base race” in Central Asia.

IMPLICATIONS: In January 2003, Russian “Inter RAO EES” and Kyrgyz “Eletrichekie Stantsii” (Power Stations) signed a five-year contract to sell 1.5 billion kWh of electricity to Russia. Kazakhstan agreed to transport the electricity via its power grid. The resulting intensive water release from the Toktogul water reservoir in Autumn and Winter of 2003 resulted in flooding in Kazakhstan’s Kyzyl-Orda region and threatened to destroy the Shardara water reservoir, which accumulated more than five billion tons of water. This possibility endangers the very life of more than 500,000 people in southern Kazakhstan. Kyrgyzstan has being experimenting ad-hoc with its economy and nation-building in the past decade. This is mainly a result of the geopolitical reality around the country as well as domestic mistakes in the path of reforms. In 1992-1995, Kyrgyzstan was seen as an “Island of Democracy” and aspired to the title “Switzerland of Central Asia”. Both prospects failed to materialize. Since 1995, with incumbent president Askar Akaev time and again re-elected for the office, this country lost its democratic appeal as the model case in Central Asia in the eyes of the West, especially in the United States. In economic terms, the country moved from one version of reforms to another, from “shock-therapy” to an absolute lack of meaningful reforms. Currently, the state of the economy is in such a degree of disarray that vital lines of electricity supply and railways have been dismembered by poor people and sold as scrap metal in flourishing businesses that sell strategic infrastructure of the state for pennies. Local opposition leaders and foreign analysts point out the failures in many areas of responsibility of the Kyrgyz state. International developments around Kyrgyzstan during the last two years have affected the development of the situation in this country and the path of its international relations. Foreign powers increasingly affect the course of Kyrgyz authorities in relation even with its immediate neighbors. The common interests of all Central Asian nations are hence starting to fall victim of competing foreign interests in Kyrgyzstan. It is likely that this could eventually lead to even more complex problems between Kyrgyzstan and its neighbors.

CONCLUSIONS: The “Great base race” in Central Asia has already resulted in mounting problems for Kyrgyzstan. Kazakhstan was assessing not only the economic damage from the flooding it its’ southern Shymkent and Kyzyl-Orda regions, but also trying to assess international legal actions, if the Shardara reservoir is destroyed. Many other problems in Kyrgyzstan’s relations with neighboring countries have been lingering for almost a decade without a solution. The volatility of internal politics in Kyrgyzstan, especially the Kyrgyz parliament, has been preventing the government of president Askar Akaev from being able to push international treaties through the legislature. Under these circumstances, the meddling of foreign powers in Kyrgyzstan’s affairs and inter-state relations in Central Asia are increasingly harmful to regional stability. Kyrgyzstan’s excessive reliance on foreign powers prevents it from finding realistic and workable solutions to existing problems with its neighbors. All countries of Central Asia have a direct interest in beginning the intensive work of materializing mutually beneficial projects of cooperation in many fields, beginning with common water use and electricity generation and regional trade. The interests of foreign powers from the far or near abroad are threatening to become the key reason to develop or halt interstate and regional cooperation in Central Asia.

AUTHOR’S BIO: James Purcell Smith is a freelance writer on Central Eurasian issues, based in New York.