BACKGROUND: Ukraine’s growing role in the Caucasus is reflected in The UN Security Council inclusion of Ukraine in a group nations helping the UN Secretary General to solve the Abkhazian conflict. Russian intended to use the CIS as a tool to impose its geopolitical and economic control over former Soviet republics. To protect themselves from Russia, Ukraine, Georgia, Azerbaijan and Moldova created GUUAM that now includes Uzbekistan which is now a "Trojan Horse" within the CIS. Ukraine’s transformation into a stable democratic state will contribute to the similar transformations throughout the Caucasus and the entire former Soviet Union. Azerbaijan, Georgia and Moldova have been greatly dissatisfied with the role of the CIS in general, and Russia in particular, in the conflict resolution process within their territories.

Ukraine and the Caucasian states have common problems, as well as common interests. It is no coincidence that Ukraine was accused by Russia of assisting Chechen fighters and thus joined Georgia and Azerbaijan as the other main targets of Russian accusation. Under such conditions, the mutual support of the leaders of Ukraine and the Caucasus has become very important. Last autumn, before the presidential elections in Ukraine, the president of Georgia Eduard Shevardnadze showed his support to his Ukrainian colleague by visiting Kiev. Ukrainian president Leonid Kuchma did the same this spring before the presidential elections in Georgia and also visited Baku.

The issue of gas and other energy materials has become the main weapon of Russian pressure on Ukraine. Today the Ukrainian state debt to Russia is US $3 billion. Out of this figure, $1.4 billion is Ukraine debt for gas. Russia cuts the supplies of fuel to Ukraine during difficult periods and salvation always comes from Azerbaijan. The Russian pressure makes Ukraine seek alternative sources of fuel including a project developed by Ukraine that provides for building a gas pipeline from Turkmenistan that would bypass Russian territory. Ukraine has already developed long-term programs for economic co-operation with Georgia and Azerbaijan, and a similar program is being developed with Armenia. On August 18-19, the presidents of Georgia and Ukraine met devoting most of their discussions to the issue of establishing a free trade zone within GUUAM boundaries

IMPLICATIONS: GUUAM members are using their alliance to reduce Russian dominance in the CIS. If Ukraine manages to become more successful than Russia in carrying out peacekeeping missions in the Caucasian conflicts, its importance in Europe will multiply. The eastern and southern directions of Ukraine’s foreign policy have tremendous potential. Azerbaijan and Georgia are far from being satisfied with the current balance in the CIS and would welcome changes. Armenia is assured to get security guarantees, once it decides to withdraw from the geopolitical deal it has with Russia. Georgia alone will be hardly able to calm Armenia’s security concerns, but Georgia as Azerbaijan’s partner and counter-balance, and Ukraine as Turkey’s partner and counter-balance, together can achieve this goal.

The decision to withdraw Russian forces from their bases in Georgia has been made. When the withdrawal actually takes place, the mandate of Russian peacekeepers in Abkhazia will probably soon come to an end. It will then be possible to substitute Ukrainian troops for the Russian peacekeepers and Kiev has openly announced its readiness to so. Ukraine will also become actively involved in the solution of the Karabakh conflict, especially considering the fact that the creation of the joint GUUAM peacekeeping battalion is already on the agenda. The participation by Ukraine in peacekeeping operations in Bosnia and Kosovo was a useful experience and now Ukrainian peacekeepers are at work in Lebanon. The main tasks of the Ukrainian contingent of 650 individuals in South Lebanon is to maintain civil peace, pave roads, establish communications, build reservoirs and clear mines.

Despite numerous Russia’s efforts, Ukraine has so far managed to maintain stability in Crimea. But if isolated from Moldova, Poland, Georgia or Turkey, Ukraine will be unable to become a part of Europe and escape the Russian orbit. Under such conditions Ukraine will likely develop closer relations with Poland and Turkey. If Ukraine manages to gain the same importance in the Caucasus region as the traditional "players" Iran, Russia, Turkey, and drag Armenia from the Russian-Iranian sphere of influence to Europe, it could thus contribute to the integration of Iran with the West. As Ukraine needs a transport network that can support a market economy integrated into the world trade system, the Caucasus and Iran might provide Ukraine with access to the vast markets of Central Asia, Middle East, Persian Gulf and Southeast Asia.

CONCLUSIONS: Until the Ukrainians become able to cope with their political and economic problems, there will be a danger that the lack of Ukrainian competence may drive Ukraine back into the Russian realm. The same dangers hold for the Caucasus. Ukraine is actively lobbying for the oil project "Baku-Supsa-Odessa-Brod". Many specialists hold that the Baku-Ceyhan oil pipeline would weaken Ukraine’s role in the Black Sea and, on the whole, in entire region. From this perspective, the Russian route would be more beneficial for Ukraine because it can be directly and fully involved in this route. The pipeline bypassing Ukrainian territory should not be viewed as a weakness for Ukraine. Regardless of which pipeline or pipelines become operational, Ukraine must search for ways to make the political systems and markets of the GUUAM countries transparent for the rest of the world.

It is clear that as long as Ukraine is independent, Russia will never have a chance to restore an empire. Just as the emergence of CIS marked disintegration of the USSR, the development of GUUAM into a strong organization must mark the end of the CIS. With the proposed multi-route transportation of Caspian Sea fossil fuels, Russia will be forced to reassess its ambitious policy in the Caucasus. While Moscow is trying to block Caucasian transit routes, political and military pressure on the Caucasus will become senseless after the alternate routes begin to operate. That is why GUUAM countries must push for more corridors, more transparency, and more stability. When the interests of all the regional countries are satisfied, the level of stability will greatly increase.

AUTHOR BIO: Dr. Zurab Tchiaberashvili is the Head of Civil Education Department at the National Library of the Georgian Parliament in Tbilisi. He is also the Media Program Coordinator at the Caucasian Institute for Peace, Development and Democracy. He received his Ph.D. in the History of Philosophy from the Georgian Academy of Sciences.

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