On May 31, the first Yerevan mayoral elections were bitterly contested by the ruling Armenian Republican Party and the opposition Armenian National Congress, represented by the first president of independent Armenia, Levon Ter-Petrosyan. The elections were marred by numerous violations, including vote buying and instances of violence and voter intimidation. Predictably, according to the official results, the Republican Party secured a landslide victory and the mayoral office. The results were not recognized by the main opposition, the Armenian National Congress, which announced that it will permanently boycott the Yerevan City Council.

BACKGROUND: The Yerevan City Council elections took place at a time of continued tensions between the regime and the opposition represented by an alliance of political forces – most prominently the Armenian National Congress, headed by Levon Ter-Petrosyan.

In the February 2008 presidential elections, Ter-Petrosyan was able to consolidate significant parts of the so far extremely fragmented opposition and came to represent an alternative to the regime with its candidate, then-Prime Minister Serzh Sargsyan. Following the presidential elections, which were marked by serious violations, Ter-Petrosyan’s supporters rejected the official results declaring victory for Serzh Sargsyan and organized street protests. During the night of March 1-2, 2008, violent clashes broke out between the police and the opposition, leaving 10 dead. The regime reacted by announcing an emergency and imprisoning over 100 supporters of the opposition, 55 of whom were still in prison as of June 2009. These developments seriously exacerbated the divisions in the Armenian society.

The two bodies investigating the March 1-2 events – a parliamentary inquiry committee representing government parties and a five-member Fact-Finding Group which was established in October 2008 by President Serzh Sargsyan upon the Council of Europe’s insistence and which unlike the parliamentary committee includes members of the opposition – have yet to publish the results of their work. The Fact-Finding Group was effectively paralyzed in mid-May by tensions between pro-government and pro-opposition representatives over a leaked confidential report detailing the circumstances of the death of one of the two policemen killed in the clashes with demonstrators on 1 March. Several court cases of imprisoned opposition supporters are running into trouble lately as witnesses have recalled their earlier statements, asserting that they were coerced by the police to falsely incriminate the accused.

The broad coalition government composed of the Republican Party of Armenia, Prosperous Armenia Party, Armenian Revolutionary Federation and the Rule of Law party that came into being in April 2008 has made economic development and poverty reduction the corner stone of its program. However, in the first four months of 2009, Armenia experienced a 9.7 percent GDP contraction fueled by a 48 per cent fall in industrial exports (mining and metallurgy) and a 42 per cent contraction in the construction sector. These unfavorable developments led the Armenian government to seek external financial support from the IMF, the World Bank and Russia. The World Bank expects an increase in poverty rates of 4 to 6 percentage points by 2010, from a base of 22 per cent. Rising poverty is likely to further exacerbate tensions in society, where the inequitable distribution of wealth presents a growing problem.

Further, the regime was weakened by the late April departure of the Armenian Revolutionary Federation from the coalition due to irreconcilable disagreements with the regime’s Turkey policy. The decision to leave the coalition was triggered by the ‘roadmap’ for normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations announced on April 22.

The election campaign was marked by attacks on Armenian National Congress campaigners, but also repeated clashes between supporters of the two largest governmental coalition parties (the Republican and Prosperous Armenia parties). These incidents highlighted growing tensions between the Republican party, led by President Serzh Sargsyan, and the Prosperous Armenia party headed by influential tycoon Gagik Tsarukian, who is believed to be close to former President Robert Kocharian.

According to official results, 53 percent of eligible voters cast their votes and the ruling Republican Party of Armenia won 47.4 percent of the vote. The junior coalition partner of HHK, the Prosperous Armenia Party, came in a distant second with 22.7 percent of the vote. The main opposition Armenian National Congress got 17.4 percent of the vote, well below its expectations. The Orinats Yerkir (Rule of Law) party and the Armenian Revolutionary Federation got 5.2 percent and 4.7 percent respectively, failing to clear the threshold for representation.

IMPLICATIONS: The elections were the first municipal elections since the first Constitution of independent Armenia was adopted in 1995. Until now, the President appointed and dismissed the mayor of Yerevan upon the recommendation of the Prime Minister. However, the November 2005 amendments to the Constitution set a four-year deadline to adopt a law on the city of Yerevan, which would provide for an elected mayor. Accordingly, the Law on Local Government of Yerevan City was adopted in December 2008. Based on this law, the city is to be governed by a 65-seat City Council (“Council of Elders”), members of which are elected for four-year terms under a proportional system from party lists. The top candidate on each party’s list is their candidate for the post of mayor. There is a 7 percent threshold for individual political parties and 9 percent for alliances. The City Council then elects the mayor with a simple majority of votes; he then appoints the Heads of twelve Administrative Districts who will replace the previously elective Community Heads.

The elections were important because over one-third of the total electorate and over half of the economic potential of Armenia are concentrated in Yerevan. Powers attached to the post of Mayor would pave the way for the incumbent to become a key political actor in Armenia capable of challenging the President and the Government. Having secured more than 40 per cent of the popular vote, the top candidate of the Republican Party of Armenia, current mayor Gagik Beglaryan (who is also a member of the Board of the Republican Party of Armenia) will be reinstated.

Accounts of election conduct vary widely. The Armenian National Congress and the opposition party Zharangutyun (Heritage) decried widespread election fraud, especially vote buying and the bussing of allegedly bribed voters by the Republican Party of Armenia and the Prosperous Armenia Party, and numerous instances of violence and ballot box stuffing. Also the Armenian Revolutionary Federation has not accepted the legitimacy of the official results.  Unsurprisingly, the ruling Republican Party of Armenia maintained that the polls were largely free and fair. Similarly, the Central Electoral Commission and the Office of the Prosecutor-General found most of the allegations of fraud baseless. President Serzh Sargsyan said that the elections marked a “serious step forward” in the elimination of Armenia’s culture of electoral fraud.

The Office of Democratic Institutions and Human Rights of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe was not invited to observe these elections. Observers from the Council of Europe’s Congress of Local and Regional Authorities concluded that the municipal elections in Yerevan were largely democratic despite some “serious deficiencies”, which “had some influence on the final results, but not to the extent that the legitimacy of the final results was prejudiced, as far as we could see at this moment in time.”  This assessment was strongly criticized by representatives of civil society, media and opposition. The Armenian chapter of Transparency International said that their representatives had witnessed instances of violence against observers, journalists and various other kinds of electoral fraud.  The harsh critique voiced by Armenian civil society and mass media against the Council of Europe’s Congress of Local and Regional Authorities’ assessment of the elections testifies to the former’s growing sentiment that the ‘West’, including human rights organizations such as the Council of Europe, does not care about the fate of democracy in Armenia.

CONCLUSIONS: The May 31 elections have deepened the protracted internal political crisis between the ruling regime and the Armenian National Congress. Following the elections, the Congress announced that that with these elections Serzh Sargsyan has closed the path of dialogue, that it will boycott the City Council and that it does not rule out initiating civil disobedience actions. Surprisingly, the Armenian Revolutionary Federation approved the Armenian National Congress’ decision to boycott the municipal assembly. It remains to be seen whether these two forces will be able to cooperate given the resentment between the ARF and Ter-Petrosyan, who banned the party in 1994.

While the opposition continues to be relatively fragmented, the regime is failing to consolidate its power amid lack of progress in detente with Turkey, negotiations over Nagorno Karabakh and deepening economic recession. At the same time, it is far from clear whether the opposition offers a feasible alternative.

AUTHOR’S BIO: Dr. Blanka Hancilova is analyst of international relations with a focus on the CIS and the co-founder of Apreco Consulting Group.