MONGOLIA’S POLITICAL CRISIS AND ITS MINERAL RICHES
By John C.K. Daly (7/24/2008 issue of the CACI Analyst)
On July 1 voter unrest over Mongolia’s recent parliamentary elections boiled over into street demonstrations during which five people were killed, 300 injured and more than 700 arrested, leading the government to declare a state of emergency. Underlying voter unrest were concerns about economic issues, including record-high inflation and contracts with foreign mining concerns eager to exploit the country’s vast mineralogical wealth. Seizing on the issue of imminent massive foreign investment both leading parties promised voters a “share of the treasure” equivalent to the average worker’s annual salary.
MOSCOW’S EFFORTS TO STENGTHEN GRIP ON CSTO AND CIS SEEK GREATER IDEOLOGICAL UNITY
By Erica Marat (7/24/2008 issue of the CACI Analyst)
At the July 2008 Council of CIS Defense Ministers in Bishkek, members agreed to boost air defenses and jointly celebrate the 65th anniversary of the Soviet Union’s victory in the Second World War. Both agreements exposed the CIS’s wish to follow the abrupt success of its smaller branch, the CSTO, whose structures multiplied and military cooperation have widened. While being a military organization, the CSTO’s formation was primarily driven by the common Soviet identity among its members, therefore allowing further expansion of its functions beyond military cooperation.
KASHAGAN LEADS KAZAKHSTAN TO INCREASE TRANS-CASPIAN OIL EXPORTS
By Robert M. Cutler (7/9/2008 issue of the CACI Analyst)
Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan have culminated years-long negotiations with agreements that increase the amounts of Kazakhstani oil to be shipped across the Caspian Sea, supplementing Azerbaijani crude in the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline. Still more significant, redevelopment and expansion of ports on Georgia’s Black Sea coast now prepare the way for Kazakhstani crude to enter the Odessa-Brody pipeline (OBP), which will be reversed again so as to flow east-to-west, and so to reach world markets by way of Gdansk. This oil will come from the massive offshore Kashagan field or even the onshore Tengiz field itself.
MONGOL-RUSSIAN URANIUM COOPERATION
By John C.K. Daly (7/9/2008 issue of the CACI Analyst)
Foreign investment in Mongolia is largely directed towards the country's vast, largely untapped mineral resources. Russia, Mongolia's second largest trading partner, has an inside advantage, as it provides approximately 90 percent of the country's oil imports and nearly all of its wheat imports. Moscow is now focusing on acquiring a dominant position in developing Mongolia's uranium resources, but Russia’s heavy-handed capitalist policies are provoking a political backlash.
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Silk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, Greater Central Asia as A Component of U.S. Global Strategy, October 2024.
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Analysis Mamuka Tsereteli, "U.S. Black Sea Strategy: The Georgian Connection", CEPA, February 9, 2024.
Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell, ed., Türkiye's Return to Central Asia and the Caucasus, July 2024.
Book Svante E. Cornell, ed., "The Changing Geopolitics of Central Asia and the Caucasus" AFPC Press/Armin LEar, 2023.
Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell and S. Frederick Starr, Stepping up to the “Agency Challenge”: Central Asian Diplomacy in a Time of Troubles, July 2023.
Silk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, U.S. Policy in Central Asia through Central Asian Eyes, May 2023.