THE BLUE STREAM PIPELINE AND GEOPOLITICS OF NATURAL GAS IN EURASIA
By Mamuka Tsereteli (11/30/2005 issue of the CACI Analyst)
BACKGROUND: The Blue Stream pipeline is the world\'s deepest undersea pipeline, stretching from southern Russia under the Black Sea to the Durusu Metering Station, a gas terminal outside the port city of Samsun. The gas pipeline is scheduled to deliver 6 bcm per year in 2006, and to reach its full capacity of 16 bcm by 2010. Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Turkey\'s Black Sea coast for the inauguration ceremony.AZERBAIJAN’S ELECTIONS: EVOLUTION, NOT REVOLUTION
By Svante E. Cornell (11/16/2005 issue of the CACI Analyst)
BACKGROUND: On the one hand, Azerbaijan’s strategic value to the West has gradually increased, due to its significant oil resources; its role in the international anti-terrorist coalition; and its symbolic role as a moderate, secular, and potentially democratic Muslim nation. While these elements were all assets to the incumbent regime, this was compounded by the Bush administration’s increased emphasis on democratization in the greater Middle East. Azerbaijan became a test case for the ‘Bush doctrine’: would Washington stick to its principles in case of a fraudulent election, or stand by a strategic if authoritarian ally? In the run-up to the elections, Washington took on a more active role in Azerbaijan’s electoral politics than at earlier occasions.DOES THE IRAN-PAKISTAN-INDIA PIPELINE HAVE A FUTURE?
By Rizwan Zeb (11/16/2005 issue of the CACI Analyst)
BACKGROUND: The IPI pipeline would run about 1,115 km (690 miles) in Iran, 705 km (440 miles) in Pakistan and 850 km (530 miles) in India, and total investment is estimated at $4 billion and may take 4 to 5 years to complete. Australia’s BHP, the National Iranian Gas Company, Petronas and Total have expressed interest in building the pipeline. The Indian government recently decided it would seek cabinet approval for joining the project once the three countries decide on the project framework by late 2005.ARMENIA’S CONSTITUTIONAL REFERENDUM LIKELY TO SUCCEED
By Grigor Hakobyan (11/16/2005 issue of the CACI Analyst)
BACKGROUND: Despite the international support that the proposed constitutional amendments enjoy, a group of 20 parties that make up the opposition are advocating a ‘No’ vote in the referendum, while others call for a public boycott of the referendum. Although the opposition’s efforts undertaken in this direction have failed on several occasions in the past, the upcoming November 27 constitutional referendum in Armenia constitutes a good opportunity to challenge the legitimacy of the government and of the President. The main constitutional amendments that are being contested by the Armenian political opposition are those of article 56 (granting of legal immunity to the President after the expiration of the term), article 80 (the power of the President to change Armenia’s borders with the approval of Parliament) and several other, including one that rules out a direct election for the mayor of Yerevan but instead has the mayor of Yerevan elected by a vote among elected officials in the city government.Visit also
Staff Publications
Silk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, Greater Central Asia as A Component of U.S. Global Strategy, October 2024.
Analysis Laura Linderman, "Rising Stakes in Tbilisi as Elections Approach," Civil Georgia, September 7, 2024.
Analysis Mamuka Tsereteli, "U.S. Black Sea Strategy: The Georgian Connection", CEPA, February 9, 2024.
Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell, ed., Türkiye's Return to Central Asia and the Caucasus, July 2024.
Book Svante E. Cornell, ed., "The Changing Geopolitics of Central Asia and the Caucasus" AFPC Press/Armin LEar, 2023.
Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell and S. Frederick Starr, Stepping up to the “Agency Challenge”: Central Asian Diplomacy in a Time of Troubles, July 2023.
Silk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, U.S. Policy in Central Asia through Central Asian Eyes, May 2023.