Wednesday, 04 May 2005

GEORGIA: THE HONEYMOON IS OVER

Published in Field Reports

By Kakha Jibladze (5/4/2005 issue of the CACI Analyst)

A drop of a quarter of the voters would worry any politician, but most experts anticipated Saakashvili’s phenomenal support, which at a high point was estimated at 98% of the population-was doomed to fall. And, while it is easy to pinpoint the reason for people’s disillusion, it is much harder to address it.

One of the main complaints is people anticipated a quick release from the hardships they have endured over the past dozen years.

A drop of a quarter of the voters would worry any politician, but most experts anticipated Saakashvili’s phenomenal support, which at a high point was estimated at 98% of the population-was doomed to fall. And, while it is easy to pinpoint the reason for people’s disillusion, it is much harder to address it.

One of the main complaints is people anticipated a quick release from the hardships they have endured over the past dozen years. But instead of instant relief, many have seen their livelihood fall victim to the government’s war against contraband. This spring, the government announced no vender would be allowed to sell cigarettes or alcohol without a government license-one week before the law was to take affect. The protests from small street venders came after a long line of similar protests from street traders throughout the country. In a move to improve sanitary conditions and oversight on food products, as well as close outlets for contraband, regional governments began closing local bazaars and markets either for reconstruction or relocation outside of the city center. In the western town of Zugdidi, traders from the local bazaar protested for weeks after the government announced the marketplace would be temporarily closed for reconstruction. Women tried to force their way into the closed market, holding signs alternating between calls for ‘Misha’ to help or calls for Shevardnadze to return and save them. In Tbilisi, traders from the construction market, Iliava, closed a main road in the capital after being told their market would be relocated to the suburbs.

There are also fewer jobs in the government as Saakashvili makes good on his promises to limit the size of the bureaucracy. Those former bureaucrats who have been laid off have few options for finding new work; the new administration has not made any real visible strides in revitalizing the job market.

While reforms of this sort are necessary, they accent the country’s dependence on the black market and the lack of real understanding what reforms mean. After seven decades of communism, people have grown accustomed to receiving everything from their government. When President Saakashvili promised Georgians ‘a new life,’ average Georgians did not anticipate that path to that ‘new life’ would adversely affect them. The new government also did not properly educate the population before radical measures went into effect, either.

Georgians – especially in the countryside – are also disillusioned with the new president because life in regions outside the capital has not noticeably changed for the better to date. The major problems that plagued villagers, namely the lack of electricity, have not been addressed. While the new administration has presented a plan to rehabilitate the energy system throughout the country, the full effects will not be felt for an estimated 18 months. During Saakashvili’s first winter in office, he was fortunate that the weather conditions were mild; this past winter was very harsh and the country felt the full force of the energy crisis. People in the regions are also not accustomed to paying for the electricity they consume; on average people outside the capital not only do not regularly pay their electric bills, they also pay considerably less than it cost to provide electricity. As the government allows the tariffs to slowly rise, people feel cheated. Not only are they not regularly receiving electricity-a commodity they widely anticipated after the Rose Revolution-but they are being charged more for the little they do receive. Residents in the regions are used to receiving electricity without paying for is, since during Shevardnadze’s government no one paid attention.

The new tax laws are also difficult for people to understand. After so many years of corruption, not only are people distrustful about what will happen with the money, they often do not understand there is a direct connection between what services the government can provide and how much tax businesses pay. There is also a lack of information; although the tax law was passed several months ago, the average small businessman still does not know what is expected out of him.

However, without a strong opposition, there is no real forum to address people’s concerns. The current opposition parties in Georgia have largely discredited themselves in the eyes of the Georgian population; while people may be unhappy with the current reforms there are no viable alternatives in the current political landscape.

The rash of protests in Georgia over the past few months is a reflection of Georgians disillusion with the current administration and post-revolution life in Georgia. The reforms are a necessary evil to strengthen the Georgian state, but they are completely foreign for the Georgian people, and in addition to the reforms themselves being hard to get used to, the government has not consistently educated the public about what the policies are and why they are needed. The reform process has just started; people will feel the impact of the new government in their lives more and more as the process continues. While the population is still largely supportive of Saakashvili, he will continue to lose support as the reforms take on more and more aspects of everyday life. However, he will be in danger of losing his core supporters if the government can not develop a way to prove to the Georgian people their current sacrifice will lead to a much brighter future.

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The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst is a biweekly publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, a Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center affiliated with the American Foreign Policy Council, Washington DC., and the Institute for Security and Development Policy, Stockholm. For 15 years, the Analyst has brought cutting edge analysis of the region geared toward a practitioner audience.

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