Though it is still too early to say whether Kazakhstan’s internal stability is at risk, national authorities are now investigating, with little success, two explosions that occurred on May 17 and 24 in Aktobe in Western Kazakhstan and Astana respectively. The first case involved a 25-year-old citizen of Kazakhstan, Rakhimzhan Makatov, who blew himself up in the temporary detention facility of the National Security Committee. According to the official version, the perpetrator of this act was previously affiliated with a number of criminal organizations. In order to avoid the burden of responsibility for crimes committed earlier, he is believed to have smuggled a medium-sized explosive into the NSC compound, which took his life and severely injured a local guard.

Another recent violent episode occurred in Astana on May 24, a few meters away from another facility of the National Security Committee. A private car carrying two passengers blew up in the proximity of a quiet residential area. The ensuing investigation promptly revealed that one of the victims of the explosion had previously been convicted for minor crimes, including theft and fraud. The other person, originally from Kyrgyzstan, had no criminal record and had supposedly borrowed the car from his friend, a taxi driver. The spokesperson of the Interior Ministry quickly rejected any hints to a terrorist act, telling journalists that the explosive was not packed with screws, nails, and other damaging elements preferred by terrorists for mass killings. At the same time, some experts presume that the explosion was initially planned for a later time, but could not be deferred because of a technical failure. Others believe that the two victims may have been involved in a radical religious grouping trained and equipped by anti-government forces in the neighboring Central Asian republics.

Whatever the causes of the two incidents, most observers are now pointing to the recent ratification of a Kazakhstan-NATO agreement which provides for the dispatch of Kazakh peacekeepers to Afghanistan for the purpose of aiding the ISAF mission there. The Majilis rubber stamped the agreement on May 18, handing it over to the Senate. It is expected that upon complete ratification, this international instrument will enable the Kazakh Government to deploy a presence on the ground in Afghanistan for at least six months in pursuance of its solemn commitment conveyed during the Brussels meeting between President Nazarbayev and NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen in October 2010. Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Defense is now considering the possibility of identifying four qualified officers to serve at the ISAF headquarters in Kabul or in other provinces with a strong NATO deployment.

This decision did not pass unnoticed by the Taliban who issued a threatening warning on May 21, exhorting Kazakhstan’s Parliament to reconsider its approval in exchange for security guarantees for Kazakh citizens. “Kazakhstan is aiming to defend U.S. interests instead of taking into account the opinion of its people and the regional situation. This step will have a long-term negative impact on Kazakh-Afghan relations”, the Taliban’s statement read. The Chargé d’affaires of the U.S. Embassy to Kazakhstan, John Ordway, believes that not only Kazakhstan, but the entire Central Asia is exposed to a huge risk of insecurity emanating from pro-Taliban forces. He argues that bilateral military experience and joint military participation in the stabilization of Afghanistan will boost coordination and cooperation at all levels. “All this will have a positive effect”, Ordway reassured journalists. In his view, the statement made by the Taliban in the wake of the ratification of the Kazakh-NATO agreement could not in itself pose a serious threat to Kazakhstan’s national security. “And I think that what we all have to do is to take part and to try to do our absolute best to end terrorism in the world. Because, as we see everywhere, it is a threat to all our people and unless we act together with great purpose and effectively, it will go on without end”, the Chargé d’affaires added.

Local experts are confident that unless some decisive action is taken to bring to light the real causes of both explosions and to identify responsible organizations or individuals, the situation may spin further out of control. In an interview to the opposition-run newspaper Respublika, political scientist Rasul Zhumaly noted that the number of Kazakh citizens who have been educated at religious schools and universities in Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Egypt is constantly on the rise. He also named two potential spots of instability in the south and the west of the country. “These regions are prone to a series of disturbing phenomena: sectarian activities, uncontrolled education of young people abroad, and high unemployment”.