By Vali Kaleji

March 28, 2024

The development of military and defense relations between Azerbaijan and Pakistan and Armenia and India is an important consequence of the political arrangement and the balance of forces after the Second Karabakh War. However, Pakistan’s non-recognition of Israel has prevented Baku from forming a “quadruple alliance” with its three strategic allies, including Turkey, Israel and Pakistan. Armenia, after defeat in the war and amid dissatisfaction with its traditional ally Russia and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), views India, France and Iran as new strategic options, however, Iran prefers Armenia to maintain its traditional and strategic relations with Russia. The tripartite cooperation between Armenia, Iran and India focus efforts on “soft balancing” (economic-transit) instead of “hard balancing” (military-security), against the tripartite ties of Azerbaijan, Turkey and Pakistan in the South Caucasus.turkey azerbaijan pakistan flags big

Published in Analytical Articles

Brenda Shaffer

March 27, 2024

In recent years, Türkiye has significantly increased cooperation with the states of Central Asia and Azerbaijan. One of the most important geopolitical developments in recent years in Eurasia is the emerging alliance between Türkiye, Azerbaijan, and Central Asia. This emerging alliance has given impetus to increased cooperation in the sphere of energy among the states. In addition, the increases in strategic collaboration in the region are also raising the prospects of establishment of cross-Caspian energy projects. Türkiye’s engagement in the energy sphere in Central Asia is likely to grow in 2024 and onward. 2024 is a pivotal year for Türkiye’s energy policies as its main contracts for gas imports from Russia and Iran expire at the end of 2024 and in 2026. Thus, this year Ankara will make decisions on its future natural gas supplier mix. Türkiye’s Sakarya gas field is also ramping up over 2024.

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Published in Feature Articles

Ali Hajizade

March 7, 2024

Türkiye’s relations with Azerbaijan have always been the closest of its ties with Turkic states, for reasons of geographic and cultural proximity. Still, the relationship has developed significantly in recent years. Energy and military cooperation remain the main fields of the relationship, which leaders in both countries define as one of “one nation, two states.” Azerbaijan plays a key role in supplying Türkiye with natural gas, while Türkiye serves as Azerbaijan’s gateway for energy exports to European markets. In the field of military cooperation, the two countries have progressed to the building of an alliance and mutual defense treaty, making Azerbaijan the first post-Soviet states to enjoy a defense treaty with a NATO member.

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Screenshot 2024-03-22 at 1.17.37 AM

Published in Feature Articles

By Intigam Mamedov

March 21, 2024

On February 13, 2024, a new border skirmish took place between Armenia and Azerbaijan, months after Baku regained its territories in Nagorno-Karabakh. While the sides accuse each other of provocations, such incidents could also lead to larger clashes. While a peace deal is needed in order to put an end to the decades-long conflict, reaching an agreement will take time. Meanwhile, to encourage it, both states should now focus on trust-building initiatives, particularly in the humanitarian, economic, and environmental areas. Such short-term initiatives have the potential to assist and stimulate the evolution of new narratives on peaceful coexistence – a challenging but vital task for current and future generations.

Aliyev Pashinyan European Council President Charles Michel large

Published in Analytical Articles

By Mehmet Fatih Oztarsu

February 27, 2024

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan seeks a new path forward following Azerbaijan’s seizure of Nagorno-Karabakh and the radical shift in regional dynamics in the South Caucasus. His initiatives aim to revitalize Armenia and resolve longstanding issues, forging a new regional posture. However, domestic divisions and external challenges complicate his efforts. Azerbaijan has not responded to his calls for alternative cooperation while he remains skeptical of Azerbaijan’s overtures. Therefore, Pashinyan prefers to deal with Armenia’s domestic priorities and move carefully towards regional cooperation.

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Published in Analytical Articles

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Staff Publications

Screen Shot 2023-05-08 at 10.32.15 AMSilk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, U.S. Policy in Central Asia through Central Asian Eyes, May 2023.


Analysis Svante E. Cornell, "Promise and Peril in the Caucasus," AFPC Insights, March 30, 2023.

Oped S. Frederick Starr, Putin's War In Ukraine and the Crimean War), 19fourtyfive, January 2, 2023

Oped S. Frederick Starr, Russia Needs Its Own Charles de Gaulle,  Foreign Policy, July 21, 2022.

2206-StarrSilk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, Rethinking Greater Central Asia: American and Western Stakes in the Region and How to Advance Them, June 2022 

Oped Svante E. Cornell & Albert Barro, With referendum, Kazakh President pushes for reforms, Euractiv, June 3, 2022.

Oped Svante E. Cornell Russia's Southern Neighbors Take a Stand, The Hill, May 6, 2022.

Silk Road Paper Johan Engvall, Between Bandits and Bureaucrats: 30 Years of Parliamentary Development in Kyrgyzstan, January 2022.  

Oped Svante E. Cornell, No, The War in Ukraine is not about NATO, The Hill, March 9, 2022.

Analysis Svante E. Cornell, Kazakhstan’s Crisis Calls for a Central Asia Policy Reboot, The National Interest, January 34, 2022.

StronguniquecoverBook S. Frederick Starr and Svante E. Cornell, Strong and Unique: Three Decades of U.S.-Kazakhstan Partnership, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, December 2021.  

Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell, S. Frederick Starr & Albert Barro, Political and Economic Reforms in Kazakhstan Under President Tokayev, November 2021.

The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst is a biweekly publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, a Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center affiliated with the American Foreign Policy Council, Washington DC., and the Institute for Security and Development Policy, Stockholm. For 15 years, the Analyst has brought cutting edge analysis of the region geared toward a practitioner audience.

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