BACKGROUND: Azerbaijani elections have been always problematic. They have been harshly criticized by the international community and domestic opposition alike, and have failed to provide a level playing field for all political forces in the country. Due to the widespread fraud during the elections, the political parties from the ruling and opposition forces in the country have failed to recognize each other’s interest and instead focused on antagonism and mutual insult, leading to a high level of distrust and political polarization on both sides. While the international community seemed to have developed good working relations with the political leadership of Azerbaijan, it has been increasingly frustrated with the high level of corruption, red tape, bad governance and lack of reforms in the country. Thus, lately, President Ilham Aliyev has been coming under pressure from the Council of Europe, OSCE and western embassies on issues of cadre changes, free and fair elections, and economic and political reforms. In many ways, the western players see the upcoming parliamentary election as a “last chance for democracy” in Azerbaijan. Specifically, the Azerbaijani leadership is encouraged to observe the freedom of assembly and permit opposition rallies, which have been banned since the post-election violence in October 2003. Moreover, the authorities are advised to provide access to TV for all candidates, regardless of their political affiliation. To respond to these demands, the Azerbaijani President initiated a number of measures that are aimed at smoothing the tensions between the political players in the country and ensuring free and fair elections in November. To the surprise of many, the ruling party YAP invited five major opposition parties to a discussion on ways to build dialogue and common trust between each other. The meeting was the first event of such kind in the history of Azerbaijan and led to the belief that the ruling party was softening up for building a dialogue and not confrontation with its rivals. The parties have agreed to continue these roundtable discussions. Next, President Aliyev signed a presidential decree on improvement of the electoral process. The decree specifically outlined the range of activities that need to be implemented in order to ensure free and fair elections in November. Specifically, President Aliyev instructed the Central Electoral Commission to better train the election commission officials, warned the local executive heads in the provinces not to interfere with the electoral process under the threat of punishment and requested that they do not prevent any opposition rally or meeting during the electoral campaign. The decree was followed after a broad meeting of the President with the members of the ruling party, in which he instructed them to conduct free and fair elections. A week before that he has ordered the head of the Baku subway Tagi Ahmadov to allow the sale of opposition newspapers, which he had prohibited for several months. Meanwhile, Ali Hasanov, a senior official from the President’s Office, informed ANS-TV that opposition rallies would be permitted from June onwards, and two other senior officials of the Azerbaijani government have traveled to Strasbourg to discuss the changes to the electoral code with the experts from the Council of Europe.

IMPLICATIONS: All of these improvements are certainly positive moves. Both the OSCE and the American embassy in Baku have welcomed the presidential decree and have expressed hope that it will be executed properly. Local experts speculate now whether the government is indeed playing a fairer game, or if it is trying to blindfold the international community. Several reasons indicate that the former hypothesis is more correct. Foremost, the Azerbaijani government is fearing that the velvet revolutions will spread to Azerbaijan as well. Some of the opposition parties have already started openly talking about it and forming coalitions to increase their chances for victory, whereas the youth groups in the country have become more active than before. This puts much pressure on the Azerbaijani political leadership and requires it to seek ways to prevent a velvet revolution. Engaging in a dialogue with the opposition parties and improving the electoral process is the best way to do so. On the other hand, President Ilham Aliyev is in a very difficult situation. From one side, the international community is demanding cadre changes, political reforms and better governance, and from the other side his hands are tied with the members of the old guard, who remain very powerful and dangerous. President Aliyev realizes that he can neither upset these powerful members of the ruling clan, because that would weaken the ruling party prior the crucial elections, nor can he continue working with them as they hinder the economic and political development of the country and cause criticism from the Western democracies. Thus, President Aliyev is trying to play a careful game. The Presidential decree on the improvement of the electoral process is a clear message from the President that the local executive heads should change their behavior. Western observers note that electoral fraud often takes place not because of the instructions from above but because the local officials try to “show loyalty” to the President by falsifying the elections and boosting the numbers for the ruling party. In order to prevent further fraud, the President will have to show not only political will but also make sure that the local executive officials change their mindset for the electoral process. Nevertheless, the first step seems to have been made.

CONCLUSIONS: At this moment, it is still early to say whether the parliamentary elections in November will be the most democratic elections in the history of independent Azerbaijan or not. Neither is it possible to say whether possible fraud will lead to a velvet revolution or end up with another crackdown on the opposition forces. The political events are unfolding rapidly in the country, yet what becomes clear is that President Aliyev, unlike many members of his administration, is inclined towards playing a fairer game. Only the conduct of democratic elections would ensure continuous Western support for the leadership of the country and eradicate the basis for a velvet revolution in the country. President Aliyev will need further political will and determination to conduct the necessary cadre changes and eliminate unnecessary obstacles on the activities of the NGOs and opposition parties. This would provide, for the first time ever, the opportunity for harmonious relations between the political players in the country.

AUTHOR’S BIO: Alman Mir-Ismail is a freelance political analyst based in Baku, Azerbaijan.